Goblins vs. Goldfish (Another E-book Update)
Spoiler: the goblins win.
Author John Locke recently became the first self-published author to sell more than one million e-books via Amazon. With most of his books at the impulse-buy price of $.99, this means he’s earned probably around $400,000 by my estimation through Amazon. Impressive. Most impressive.
(Is it worth pointing out that this is less than a “traditionally” published author would have earned for the same number of sales, or will that just stir things up?)
Anyway, I figured this was a good time to check in and see how I’ve been doing with my own self-published e-books. Let’s just say I’m not quite ready to join Locke in the million-sales club.
Goldfish Dreams [B&N | Amazon] came out in October of 2010. Goblin Tales [Amazon | B&N | Lulu] was released in March of this year. Both are priced at $2.99, and are DRM-free. Both are available at Amazon and B&N. Goblin Tales is also up at iBooks, Kobo, Wizard’s Tower, and Lulu.
As of yesterday, I’ve sold a total of ~430 self-published books. 72 of those (17%) were Goldfish Dreams, and the rest were Goblin Tales. Here’s the breakdown through May, the last full month I have sales figures for. (A refers to Amazon, BN is Barnes and Noble.)
Lulu sales aren’t included on the graph, ’cause I don’t have a nice month-to-month breakdown. To date, I’ve sold 3 PDF downloads and 28 print copies through Lulu, for a grand total of $19.95. By comparison, the ~400 books sold through other venues come to roughly $800 in royalties.
Some thoughts:
- Amazon and B&N are the two big sellers. E-book sales through other venues have been minuscule.
- Amazon sold almost four times as many copies of Goldfish Dreams as B&N did, and 2-3 times as many copies of Goblin Tales.
- Months ago, I was told there’s no reason sales should decrease over time, since it’s not like books are being taken off the shelves, right? But while sales of Goldfish Dreams are too low to draw any real conclusions, sales of Goblin Tales seem to follow a very similar dropping-off curve to sales of my print books. (The June numbers look like they’ll continue in this pattern.)
- I have no idea whether releasing Kitemaster & Other Stories will have any effect on sales of my other e-books, but I look forward to finding out!
- Goldfish Dreams is a mainstream novel. Goblin Tales is fantasy. I’ve built a name as a fantasy author, not mainstream. This matters.
Would I have sold better at $.99 like Locke? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe they’d sell better at $4.99. It’s impossible to say. I’m satisfied enough that I’m continuing to move forward with Kitemaster.
Comments and discussion are welcome, as always.
Anke
June 23, 2011 @ 9:51 am
Thank you very much for getting Goblin Tales in venues other than Amazon and B&N. I couldn’t have bought it there.
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 9:57 am
You’re very welcome.
The regional restrictions are frustrating. I’ve got a friend who’s hitting these walls from the other side. She’s an author trying to put her e-books up for sale, but she’s running into roadblocks because she doesn’t have a U.S. bank account…
Scott Nicholson
June 23, 2011 @ 10:10 am
Well, of course John Locke would have made more money selling a million books with a publisher, but he wouldn’t have sold a million if they were $9.99 or $14.99. I think pretty much everyone grasps this concept. If he’d signed with a publisher, he’d probably have gotten a $10,000 advance, only been able to put out one book a year (instead of 10 or so in five months) and he’d be working on his other side jobs.
As of today he probably wouldn’t even have received his “advance,” the way things are going, and royalties would be a theoretical possibility in perhaps 2014. But that’s moot because his books would have been overpriced and he’d likely have been just another midlist writer–odds are very slim that some agent would have been astute enough to say, “Hey, I bet this guy can sell a million copies” and then actually have an editor and sales staff agree. As a NY author, John Locke would have never even got a third book out. But he knew the deal–he didn’t waste one second pecking out a query letter.
In other words, the odds of him getting a $400,000 advance were virtually zero. And this…this is why the entire system is severely broken. The perception of a couple of industry professionals carries far more weight than the perception of one million readers. And that’s morally wrong as well as just plain bad business.
As for your sales point, it is perfectly natural to quickly use up your immediate fan base in ebooks as well as print books. But you bring new fans back to your other books with each new release, and you find new ways to get discovered. Each writer is going to have different results based on individual situations. I’d bet your numbers would pick up a lot if you had your own backlist and could vary your prices.
Scott
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 10:16 am
“Well, of course John Locke would have made more money selling a million books with a publisher, but he wouldn’t have sold a million if they were $9.99 or $14.99.”
You’re the second person already to state this as a fact, when you have no way of knowing this for certain.
Why do you feel he wouldn’t have gotten an advance? Authors are continuing to get advances from the big publishers every day. Heck, mine have doubled for the new series.
The odds are he *probably* wouldn’t have sold as well, since it seems like much of his success comes from his marketing strategies and the cheap price point, but neither of us know that for certain. It’s possible he could have sold better.
“In other words, the odds of him getting a $400,000 advance were virtually zero.”
False analogy. He’s earned that $400,000 for multiple books. You’d need to break it down to a per-book advance. At $40K per book for 10 books, that’s much more realistic, and there are authors earning that much all the time. I don’t mean the top-name bestsellers like Meyer or Patterson, either.
Jon Lundy
June 23, 2011 @ 10:18 am
For someone selling a lot of books there is a snowball effect. Amazon is very good about making people aware of popular books. It is far less efficient about finding lower selling novels, unless you happen to be searching FOR that author or title, you might not even know they have a book available. (Unless the Amazon recommendation engine kicks in, but once again that only seems to give up very popular books).
It’ll be interesting to see if you have an uptick when The Snow Queen’s Shadow comes out and people search for you on Amazon.
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 10:23 am
I’ve heard that from others, too — that once you achieve a certain critical mass of sales, you get a snowball effect with Amazon recommending your books in the “Also bought” category, and things can explode from there.
Likewise, the more e-books you have available, the better they all tend to do.
In the past, the release of a new book has led to an uptick in sales for books in that series, but not as much for books in a different series. This will be the first time I’ve had a new book out from DAW while also having a few self-published titles out there. I’ll be interested to see what happens too!
Anke
June 23, 2011 @ 10:29 am
Has she had a good look at Smashwords? The “submit a word .doc” we convert into all formats” means no tight control over the formatting, and they take a cut of the profits, but they do distribute books to B&N, Kobo, Sony, Apple, and a bunch of other places. Might be something to fall back on if other avenues deadend or are too frustrating.
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 10:31 am
It’s one of the things she’s looking into, but Smashwords’ formatting can be a bit iffy, like you said…
jonathanmoeller
June 23, 2011 @ 11:07 am
Since April 17th, I’ve done about 255 self-published ebook sales.
I’ve got five ebooks now (four novels and a book about Ubuntu Linux), and of the five, the Ubuntu book has sold twice as many as the other four put together. Which is weird, because I’ve always heard that fiction does better than nonfiction in ebooks.
By the end of the year, I’m hoping to have two more novels and a second edition of the Ubuntu book up, so we’ll see what impact that has on sales.
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 11:15 am
Heh. I’ve also been told that novels sell better than collections. Common wisdom doesn’t work as well when applied to individual cases…
Virginia
June 23, 2011 @ 11:56 am
I enthusiastically second the thanks for putting them up other places (Kobo sale for me). We may be a small audience, but we are appreciative!
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 12:02 pm
Thanks! I’m not working on a print edition for Kitemaster right now, but I definitely intend to try to get the e-book into the other places.
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 1:47 pm
You’re also selling through iBooks.
The Snow Queen’s Shadow (pre-order)
Red Hood’s Revenge
The Mermaid’s Madness
Goblin War
The Stepsister Scheme
Goblin Quest
Goblin Hero
Goblin Tales
Heroes in Training
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 1:51 pm
I did mention iBooks for Goblin Tales, but didn’t have a direct link.
I’m working a Bookstore page for the site, and this will help. Thanks!
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 2:10 pm
You’re welcome!
It used to be that authors couldn’t directly get a link from the web (and the bookstore links weren’t available within iTunes), but now that’s changed. Thankfully, because I like buying on iBooks, so that’s the useful link for me.
(My order of purchase preference is: iBooks, Webscription, Fictionwise, B&N, Amazon.)
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 2:14 pm
I used to have some stuff up on Fictionwise, but the contract I had with them required exclusivity. (And the royalties were nowhere near what I get through Kindle, iBooks, etc…)
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 2:17 pm
Also…
He’s not walked away with $400k if he’s selling mostly $0.99 books, because, for books costling < $2.99, Amazon’s royalty rate is 35% of the sales price less delivery costs. Let’s assume Amazon’s stated average delivery cost of $0.06, so the calculation would be: ((0.99 – 0.06) * 1_000_000 * 0.35) = 325,500
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 2:19 pm
Ah, but the article said that *most* of his books were selling for $.99. So I’m assuming he’s got a few higher-priced books in the mix, and figured I’d round up a little to be safe.
Likewise, if he went through any sort of aggregator like Smashwords, that would take a chunk out of his royalties. But I don’t know if he did that or not.
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 2:21 pm
They are in the process of changing their requirements, and no, they don’t pay what other markets pay. In their heyday, though, they were the best source of revenue.
The reason I still shop there is that I have an iPad and my husband has a Nook, so DRM-free is my first choice for books we’re going to both want to read. Webscription is all DRM free and many books on Fictionwise also are. Other bookstores, not so much, and it’s not so easy to see.
I still get all the usual SF mags through Fictionwise subscriptions.
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 2:27 pm
Publisher: Telemachus Press, LLC (April 22, 2010)
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services
So not Smashwords. One early title was published through iUniverse, so I’m sure they took a cut.
The only book of his that sells for more than 0.99 is the $4.99 book on how he sold a million Kindle books in four months.
Jim C. Hines
June 23, 2011 @ 2:30 pm
You’re having fun with this, aren’t you? 🙂
“The only book of his that sells for more than 0.99 is the $4.99 book on how he sold a million Kindle books in four months.”
There’s irony here. I can smell it! (Especially since a big part of what I’m hearing is that he sold all those books by pricing them at 99 cents…)
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 2:41 pm
Well, I’ve been on the brink of self-republishing for months, and this week I’ve done some soul-searching (and numbers wanking) to figure out what my best approach actually is. So this is on my mind, which is why I asked you for this update yesterday.
That curiosity’s what led to my work on my e-book royalty calcumatic, which I’m still working the kinks out of.
And yes, there’s some serious irony in the $4.99 price.
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
June 23, 2011 @ 3:18 pm
I’ve been buying technical books in e-format only for at least 6 years, so it doesn’t surprise me. PragProg has done really well with PDF (and now other e-formats) of books. I have an embarrassingly large number of their books.
So it doesn’t surprise me — a technical book that’s in e-format is easier to have with you and easier to bookmark and search.
FWIW, I used to write technical books, and once was one of four authors on a SuSE book. I was the last-credited but wrote the most chapters. Go figure.
UnravThreads
June 23, 2011 @ 5:25 pm
I think this is how I see it, Jim. Apologies if it’s been mentioned above.
1. Goblin Tales is probably only going to sell to your bigger fans, and those who follow you. It’s going to be overshadowed by big releases, such as the upcoming Martin novel and the Rothfuss one from a few months back. Many sites that would post a review of your work are likely going to go for the ones that get bigger hits as that means more revenue, so perhaps that’s also a factor.
2. Yay, my Goblin Tales book must be almost unique, then!
3. Going back to point #1, it would explain why Goblin Tales is getting decreasing sales. Your most loyal fanbase, i.e. us crazy lot here, will likely have bought it in the first few months. Later sales will be most probably by curious people, non-creepily following fans and the like.
4. Christmas explains the spike in Dec ’10 for Goldfish Dreams, in my opinion. Lots of people got Kindles and stuff then.
5. Really? 1 out of 28 sales? That must mean, what, I have one of 50-60 copies of Goblin Tales in existence?
I hope I’ve not sounded too obvious. I’d be interested to see what a Princess short story collection would do in terms of sales if released now.
Jim C. Hines
June 24, 2011 @ 8:26 am
I don’t know that the overshadowing thing is a problem. A self-pubbed title isn’t going to get as much attention anyway, but on the other hand, I did get a featured review in Romantic Times, which was pretty cool…
I think you’re right on #3, though. I’ve got a core fanbase, some of whom bought the book, and I think that’s the initial sales you see on the graph. Most of that group will buy things as they come out, so once we’re past that, it’s more of a trickle-in effect of people finding my work and deciding to give the $2.99 e-book a try. If I had time to do more advertising/publicity, I’d want to work on expanding beyond my established fanbase. (But that’s a pretty big if.)
And I’m guessing about one out of 45 print copies, at most 🙂
jonathanmoeller
June 24, 2011 @ 11:28 am
It’s also way easier to update a an e-format technical book, too. Especially for something with as rapid a release cycle as Ubuntu – I want to add a chapter on Unity before 11.10 comes out in October.
Steven Saus
July 6, 2011 @ 10:04 am
There’s more folks offering digital distribution – and tight control of formatting. I’m one of them.
(Iffy is putting it nicely.)
Also, Jim, I think I figured out where my hypothesis of “sales not go down” was mistaken – and where it was right. I should be posting it tomorrow. I’ll be interested in seeing if your numbers mirror mine, and if I’m right.
Rational Numbers « The Undiscovered Author
August 19, 2011 @ 8:04 am
[…] that with data like the sort provided by Tobias S. Buckell (here and here) and Jim C. Hines (here and […]
Deirdre Saoirse Moen
August 30, 2011 @ 1:01 am
BTW, apparently Kobo’s changed their policy and is no longer requiring authors to go through Smashwords.
Steven Saus
August 30, 2011 @ 2:28 pm
This is correct – though it’s not quite as painless as Amazon or B&N. (Hint: Use the Excel option for metadata. ONIX is a bear.)