February 18, 2010 / Business

First (Professional) Novel Survey

We talk a lot about how to sell that first novel to a major publisher, but it’s hard sometimes to draw any real conclusions on the best way to break in when all we’ve got is a lot of anecdotal data. Everyone’s path is different. The experience of someone who broke in twenty years ago might not match the realities of publishing today. For that matter, the experience of someone who broke in today might not match the realities of someone else who broke in today.

So, taking a page from Tobias Buckell and his first novel advance survey, I’ve put together a survey about selling that first novel. I would love it if anyone who has sold at least one novel (any genre, including tie-ins — there’s a question where you can enter genre) to a professional publisher (for at least a $2000 advance[1. The minimum $2000 advance is an arbitrary cutoff point, which I took from SFWA’s guidelines for professional publishers.]) could take a few minutes to click the survey link and answer about a dozen questions. If you don’t have exact numbers, please give your best estimate.

http://jch.checkboxonline.com/FirstNovel.aspx

The survey will remain open through March 15. Pass it on. The more data I can pull together, the more useful the results will be. Please send people to this post instead of directly to the survey, so they get the introductory info.

I’ll post the results next month after the survey closes. This is rough, Mythbusters-style science — it’s not going to be a truly random sample, and it’s not a controlled experimental design, but it should give us some results. And it’s far better than “Well, this one guy who wrote a book once told me this is the way to sell your novel…”

If any of the survey questions are unclear, or if the survey itself gives people any trouble, please let me know ASAP so I can get that fixed.

ETA 1: For purposes of this survey, I’m not counting coauthored novels. I’m looking for the first professional novel sale where you were the sole author.

ETA 2: I do ask for book titles for verification and deduplication, if necessary. This and any other identifying information will be stripped out before anything is made public.

ETA 3: I’m looking for brand new authors and grizzled veterans alike. The broader the range of data, the more likely we’ll be able to see if certain trends have changed over time.

Thanks in advance!

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34 Comments

pending-contract author
February 18, 2010 @ 10:48 am

since my contract is still in negotiation, I’m reluctant to enter my title/name unless I know that’s going to be kept anonymous–is it?
Jim C. Hines
February 18, 2010 @ 10:52 am

It will indeed. I’ll be stripping any personal information out before I post results.

Thanks — I should update the post with that info.
pending-contract author
February 18, 2010 @ 10:54 am

Thanx!
Lynn Flewelling
February 18, 2010 @ 11:54 am

You’re talking recently sold, yes?
Jim C. Hines
February 18, 2010 @ 11:58 am

Nope. Going back as far as possible. I’d like to see a range of data so that I might be able to tell if certain trends have changed over time. (Things like having to sell short stories before selling a novel, for example.)
Gray Rinehart
February 18, 2010 @ 12:08 pm

Neat idea, Jim, and I look forward to the results. Wish I could take the survey! One of these days….
Kari Sperring
February 18, 2010 @ 12:49 pm

What an excellent idea: thank you for coming up with it.
I’m Kari, btw: we’ve spoken on LJ (I’m la_marquise_de_).
Jim C. Hines
February 18, 2010 @ 1:47 pm

Thanks! Give it time. Heck, in a month, I can crunch the numbers and give you an estimate as to how long it takes to get there 😉
Jim C. Hines
February 18, 2010 @ 1:48 pm

Thanks!

I recognized your name, but wouldn’t have been able to connect it to the LJ handle.
Angelia Sparrow
February 18, 2010 @ 3:27 pm

Well poo. I’ve got 8 published novels, but all small press, so no advances. Advances scare me.
Jim C. Hines
February 18, 2010 @ 3:31 pm

What scares you about advances, if you don’t mind me asking?
Steven Piziks
February 19, 2010 @ 11:30 am

Done!
Jim C. Hines
February 19, 2010 @ 11:31 am

Thanks, Steven! Much appreciated!
Angelia Sparrow
February 19, 2010 @ 3:46 pm

Fear of not earning out. My performance is…”erratic” is the kind term. I can sell a thousand or I can sell 11. With my luck, I’d get the advance on the 11 copy book.

I never have the faintest idea what will be a hot seller. The cyberpunk menage a trois with identical twins? 11 copies. The erotic gay pagan inspirational romance? 400 copies.
Jim C. Hines
February 19, 2010 @ 7:31 pm

I have no idea either. Even if we knew what was hot, by the time we write the book, sell it, and the publisher gets it into print, the world could have moved on to the next best thing.

One of the nice things about an advance is that when the publisher invests a lot up front, they’re more likely to put money into marketing and publicity to try to earn back that investment.

There are never any guarantees, but most publishers do a decent job figuring out what’s going to sell and how much. They have to be — it’s how they stay in business 🙂
Lynn Flewelling
February 19, 2010 @ 7:35 pm

“There are never any guarantees, but most publishers do a decent job figuring out what’s going to sell and how much. They have to be — it’s how they stay in business”

Which is why “sell through” is so crucial. If you don’t make them back their advance, they’re not going to want to invest more in you, or as much, certainly, as least w/ the big houses.
Elizabeth Donald
March 1, 2010 @ 9:46 am

Count me among those who would participate, but after five books, none of my publishers have offered an advance. Can I ask why this is a requirement of the survey? I know a hell of a lot of legitimate, professional publishers, small and not-so-small, that aren’t doing advances anymore. Yes, it’s a SFWA thing, but that’s one place I think the professional organizations are lagging seriously behind the times. I even asked the HWA reps trying to get us to sign up at a show once if they would ever relax on the advance requirement. They said it was intended to pressure publishers into offering advances. So far it isn’t working. Don’t get me wrong – I like the idea of an advance. But I also like getting a royalty check from day one, and there’s no risk of not earning it out and thus getting blackballed for all time. Seriously, if the idea is to explore avenues of getting published, “be willing to sacrifice your advance” is one aspect that should be included.
Jim C. Hines
March 1, 2010 @ 9:53 am

Hi Elizabeth,

Basically, I wanted some way to keep the poll responses from being heavily slanted toward self-published and print-on-demand books. No judgement is implied toward small presses or self-published work; that’s just not the information I’m looking for here.

“But I also like getting a royalty check from day one, and there’s no risk of not earning it out and thus getting blackballed for all time.”

That is a completely false risk. I don’t know of a single case where anyone has ever been blackballed for all time for failing to earning out. Many books fail to earn out the advance. It may be that a string of titles that do poorly will mean an author has to adopt a pseudonym. Sometimes a publisher will drop an author who’s not doing well. But the idea that if you fail to earn out, you’ll never sell another novel again is simply false.

“Seriously, if the idea is to explore avenues of getting published, “be willing to sacrifice your advance” is one aspect that should be included.”

I disagree. A higher advance means the publisher is investing more in your book up front, and is therefore more invested in getting that money back through publicity and promotional efforts. In addition, if I have to choose between getting $7500 up front or waiting 1-2 years for those royalties, I’d much prefer to have the money now.
Steven
March 1, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

I’ve shared the page link with many author friends, Jim, and I did the survey a while back. I’m looking forward to the crunched data reveal later.

Steven
Jim C. Hines
March 1, 2010 @ 5:32 pm

You and me both 🙂 Thanks, Steven!
Mike Shultz
March 1, 2010 @ 8:45 pm

Does foreign count if it fits the requirements?
Monte Cook
March 2, 2010 @ 9:26 am

I found my way here thanks to Steven. One note: the question related to “How many books had you written (finished) prior to this one?” should probably say “novels” not “books.” At least, that’s what I assumed when I answered. I had written and published many dozens of books by that point, but none of them were novels.

Looking forward to seeing the results. Thanks for doing this.
Jim C. Hines
March 2, 2010 @ 10:35 am

That’s an excellent question. I don’t know why not. (Though could you please include a note that it was a foreign novel deal in the “Other” question at the end? I don’t know that it matters, but just in case…)

Thanks!
Jim C. Hines
March 2, 2010 @ 10:37 am

Thanks, Monte! Very much appreciated.

And you’re absolutely right. There are several questions I wish I could go back and write more clearly now, but I can’t edit the survey once it’s been published. If I ever do this sort of thing again though, I’ll be working to make it as clear and specific as possible.
Fran Walker
March 3, 2010 @ 2:03 am

Jim, you might want to consider doing a second poll specifically for small press authors (see how easily I volunteer you for more work?), because the comparisons for copy sales and dollars earned per title could be quite illuminating.
Jim C. Hines
March 3, 2010 @ 7:29 am

Fran,

I appreciate that you’re not flat-out criticizing or attacking me for excluding self-published and other non-advance publishers. That said, it’s not something I’m interested in doing at this time. If someone else is interested, they’re certainly welcome to do their own survey.
Fran Walker
March 3, 2010 @ 1:11 pm

No criticism intended at all. I often hear small press authors talk about their great sales, but none of them are ever willing to talk numbes and I reckon that “great” is pretty subjective.
Jim C. Hines
March 3, 2010 @ 1:24 pm

Thanks, Fran. That makes sense. (I’ve been getting some flack on this, so I’m probably a bit touchy about it right now.)

And it’s definitely subjective. I had a book come out from a small PoD publisher back in 2003, and it sold well for the circumstances, several hundred copies. But when you compare that to my latest book with DAW? Mermaid’s Madness probably sold more copies on its first day than my PoD book sold in it’s lifetime.
Elizabeth Donald
March 3, 2010 @ 6:23 pm

That’s interesting. I keep hearing on the convention circuit that we should be wary of big advances, so it’s nice to hear that it might not be something to be afraid of. No criticism was intended – if we’re touchy, it’s probably because “small press” seems to get lumped in with “self-published” far too much these days, and the difference is night and day, as I’m sure you know.

But I think you have a good point about the publishers’ investment – I’d like to think once they’ve invested the cost of developing and printing the book, they want to do all they can to promote it, but *ahem* it’s not always the case…
Jim C. Hines
March 3, 2010 @ 7:39 pm

There are a lot of bad self-published and PoD books out there, but there are also some gorgeous, wonderful books coming out of small press. (::Cough:: Cat Valente ::Cough::)

Publicity and promotion is … well, I think almost all of us would love to be getting more 🙂 I look at my friend getting an in-store display for his next book and wonder what I have to do to get that for my own.

Overall though, I’ll take the increased vote of confidence that comes with the higher advance. I’ve also noticed things like, with my latest book — coincidentally the highest advance I’ve earned — I was the first book listed of the 4 or 5 DAW put out that month, and had more space in the catalog than in the past.

There are never any guarantees, of course. But I’d rather have no guarantees and $5000 or $10,000 in my pocket up front 🙂
Karen
March 4, 2010 @ 7:18 pm

I think I forgot to put my email address on the form but I’d love to see the results. Will you be posting them, I assume?
Jim C. Hines
March 4, 2010 @ 7:35 pm

I will indeed. Probably a 2 or 3 part report on the blog, and then I’m going to get it all compiled for the web site as well.
Lee Rowan
March 6, 2010 @ 12:22 am

I filled out your survey using my first sale-with-an-advance, but at least one of my small-press books has made the required $2K. The data would be slightly different, but not by much–the first actual sale was a little over 2 years earlier.
Jim C. Hines
March 6, 2010 @ 8:45 am

Thanks, Lee! I know some smaller press sales can and do earn royalties past the $2K mark (congrats on that, by the way). But for the study, I wanted to look specifically at the process of making that first sale for $2000 or more up front.