First Novel Survey Results
In February of 2010, I began collecting information from professionally published novelists. My goal was to learn how writers broke in and made that first big novel deal, and to use actual data to confirm or bust some of the myths about making it as a novelist.
My thanks to everyone who participated, as well as the folks at Smart Bitches Trashy Books, Book View Cafe, SFWA, SF Novelists, Absolute Write, and everyone else who helped to spread the word.
The survey closed on March 15, 2010 with 247 responses. For those interested in the raw info, I’ve posted an Excel spreadsheet of the data with all identifying information removed. You can download that spreadsheet here.
I’ve broken my write-up into nine parts:
- The Data
- Short Story Path to Publication
- Self-Publishing Your Breakout Novel
- The Overnight Success
- You Have to Know Somebody
- Can You Boost Your Odds?
- Survey Flaws
- Other Resources
- Final Thoughts
For this study, I was looking for authors who had published at least one professional novel, where “professional” was defined as earning an advance of $2000 or more. This is an arbitrary amount based on SFWA’s criteria for professional publishers. No judgment is implied toward authors who self-publish or work with smaller presses, but for this study, I wanted data on breaking in with the larger publishers.
247 authors from a range of genres responded. One was eliminated because the book didn’t fit the criteria (it was a nonfiction title). A random audit found no other problems. The results were heavily weighted toward SF/F, which is no surprise, given that it was a fantasy author doing the study. But I think this is a respectable range:
The year in which authors made their first sale covered more than 30 years, from 1974 to 2010. The data is heavily weighted toward the past decade.
There’s the background information in a nutshell. With that out of the way, let’s get to the first myth.
The Short Story Path to Publication
Back when I was a struggling young author in the late 90s, I received a great deal of contradictory advice about how to break in. Many writers told me I had to sell short stories first to hone my craft and build a reputation so agents and editors would pay attention to me. Others said this was outdated, and these days I could skip short fiction if I wanted and just jump straight into novel writing.
So do you really have to sell short fiction first? I asked how many short stories people sold, if any, before making that first professional novel sale. Answers ranged from 0 to 400 short fiction sales. On average, authors sold 7.7 short stories before selling the novel.
Next I looked at the median, the midway point in the sample. The median number of short fiction sales was 1, meaning half of the authors sold more than this many, and half sold fewer.
But let’s make this even simpler. Of 246 authors, 116 sold their first novel with zero short fiction sales.
Possible Data Quality Issue: The question was “How many short fiction sales, if any, did you have before making your first professional novel sale?” Several authors noted that they only included “professional” short fiction sales, which might reduce the numbers. But even so, the idea that you must do short fiction first appears busted. Not only that, but looking at a scatterplot of the number of short fiction sales and the year of the first novel sale, this appears to be busted going back at least 30 years.
I believe short fiction sales can help an author. One author noted that they were contacted directly by an editor who had read the author’s short fiction and wanted to know if the author had a novel. Personally, I found that short fiction helped me a lot with certain aspects of the craft. And of course, a lot of us just enjoy writing short stories. But it’s not a requirement to selling a novel.
Self-Publishing Your Breakout Novel
For as long as I’ve been writing, some authors have been announcing the death of traditional publishing. Especially with the growth of print-on-demand and electronic publishing, I hear that self-publishing is the way to go. The idea is that if you self-publish successfully, you’ll attract the notice of the big publishers and end up with a major contract, like Christopher Paolini did with Eragon.
One of the survey questions asked how authors sold their first novel to a professional publisher. The options were:
- Self-published, then sold the book to a professional publisher
- Published with a small press, then sold the book to a professional publisher
- Submitted directly to a professional publisher, who bought it
- Submitted to an agent, who sold the book to a professional publisher
- Other
To those proclaiming queries and the slush pile are for suckers, and self-publishing is the way to land a major novel deal, I have bad news: only 1 author out of 246 self-published their book and went on to sell that book to a professional publisher. There was also 1 “Other” response where the author published the book on his web site and received an offer from a professional publisher. (It should be noted that this author already had a very popular web site, which contributed to the book being noticed and picked up.)
Just to be safe, I ran a second analysis, restricting the results to only those books that sold within the past five years. PoD is a relatively new technology, so it’s possible the trends have changed. But the results are pretty much identical.
This does not mean self-publishing can never succeed, or is never a viable option. (I.e., please don’t use this as an excuse for a “Jim hates self-publishing” rant.) However, for those hoping to leverage self-published book sales into a commercially published breakout book (a la Eragon), the numbers just aren’t in your favor. For the moment at least, the traditional pathways — submitting to an agent, submitting directly to the publisher — still appear to be the way to go.
Also, please see below for Steven Saus’ graph showing the trend away from submitting directly to the publisher and more toward querying agents in recent years.
When I started writing, I figured it was easy. I thought anyone could do it. Having zipped off my first story, I assumed fame and fortune would soon be mine. And why not? How often do we see the movies where someone sits down at the computer, and after a quick writing montage, voila! They’re a published author. (Generally this seems to mean big book tours, winning awards, hanging with Oprah, and living the good life.)
So how long does it take to sell that book? Of our 246 authors, the average age at the time they sold their first professional novel was 36.2 years old. The median was also 36, and the mode was 37. Basically, the mid-to-late 30’s is a good age to sell a book.
But that doesn’t tell us how long these authors were working at their craft. So the very next question in the survey asked, “How many years had you been writing before you made your first professional novel sale?”
The responses ranged from a single respondent who said 0 years, all the way to 41 years, with an average of 11.6 years. Both the median and the mode came in at an even ten years.
You could argue that the single response from someone who had been writing for 0 years proves that overnight success can happen, and you’re right. It can happen. So can getting struck by lightning.
Here’s the breakdown in nice, graphical form:
I also asked how many books people had written before they sold one to a major publisher. The average was between three and four. Median was two. I was surprised, however, to see that the mode was zero. 58 authors sold the first novel they wrote. Still a minority, but a larger minority than I expected.
I’m still going to call this one busted. Not as thoroughly busted as I would have guessed, but the bottom line is that it takes time and practice to master any skill, including writing.
This one goes back to the idea that it’s nigh impossible to break in as an unknown writer. You have to have an in. Without those connections, editors and agents will never pay you the slightest bit of attention.
This was a little trickier to test. I asked two questions:
1. What connections did you have, if any, that helped you find your publisher?
- Met editor in person at a convention or other business-related event
- Knew them personally (not business-related)
- Introduced/referred by a mutual friend
- Other
2. What connections did you have, if any, that helped you find your agent?
- Met editor in person at a convention or other business-related event
- Knew them personally (not business-related)
- Introduced/referred by a mutual friend
- I sold my book without an agent
- Other
The most popular response in the “Other” category was “None” or “No connection at all.” Ignoring the “Other” category for the moment, all other responses were selected a grand total of 162 times. More importantly, 185 authors listed no connections whatsoever to their publisher before selling their books. 115 listed no connections at all to any agents, either. (62 others added that they did not use an agent to sell their first book.)
Combining the agent and publisher questions, a total of 140 — more than half — made that first professional novel sale with no connections to either the publisher or the agent.
Here’s the percentage breakdown:
Met editor at a convention: 17%
Knew editor personally: 3%
Referred to editor: 11%
Met agent at a convention: 11%
Knew agent personally: 4%
Referred to agent: 21%
Did not use an agent: 25%
The “Other” categories also included a small number of authors who reported winning contests, short story sales that attracted interest, industry connections, and in one case, SFWA membership.
My conclusion is that connections can certainly help. Agent referrals in particular — it’s always nice to check with other authors to see who represents them, and if you can get a referral, so much the better. But the idea that you have to have a connection? Or even that most authors knew someone before they broke in? Busted.
As has been pointed out (by my own agent, among others), while connections aren’t required, they can be helpful. I wanted to know what other steps authors took to try to improve their chances, and asked whether participants had done any of the following:
- Attended conventions
- Attended one or more writers groups
- Earned an undergrad degree in English/Writing
- Earned a graduate degree in English/Writing
- Attended a weekend writing workshop
- Attended a week-long writing workshop
- Attended a longer writing workshop
- None of the above
By far, the two most popular choices were conventions and writers groups, both of which were reported by more than half of our novelists. The least popular choice? The graduate degree in English/Writing. (As someone who holds an MA in English, I’m trying not to be depressed about that one.)
The full breakdown looks like so:
Remember, this is correlative data, not causative. However, I decided to take a look at a few more correlations, taking the writers from each of these categories and examining how many years it took to make that first pro novel sale. I bolded the highs and lows.
Full Group: Average 11.6 years, median 10, mode 10
Conventions: Average 10.5 years, median and mode unchanged
Writers Groups: Average 10.5 years, and median drops to 9.5
Undergrad Degree: Average 9.8 years, median 6.5, mode 3.5
Graduate Degree: Average 11.8 years, median 10, mode 6
Weekend Workshop: Average 10.7, median 8.5, mode 3
Week-long Workshop: Average 10.7, median 8.5, mode 6
Longer Workshop: Average 11.6, median 10, mode 6
None: Average 15.7 years, median 15, mode 9
I’m reluctant to draw too many conclusions from this, or to say that any one category will definitely help you break in. But looking at the “None” category, I think it’s safe to say that writers who are more actively trying to get out and build their careers — in any one of a number of ways — tend to break in faster than those who aren’t.
This was not a perfect study. It wasn’t meant to be. I wanted a large enough sample to start to see some trends, but I’m not qualified to run a full-scale, controlled study. Nor do I have the time. In the interest of full disclosure, here are the flaws I’m aware of.
1. Sample bias. I’m a fantasy author. When I announced the survey and asked for authors to participate, I knew the results would be heavily skewed toward SF/F writers in my network. I did some outreach to spread the word to other writing groups and blogs, but the results are still weighted toward SF/F and may not apply as strongly to other genres.
2. Question imprecision. Several questions were imprecisely worded. For example, one question asked “How many times, if any, was your novel rejected before it sold to a professional publisher?” I received enough comments and questions about this, asking whether I meant publisher rejections, agent rejections, or both, that I did not include the final data in my write-up. I’m also unhappy with one of the networking questions which asked if you were introduced/referred to your agent or editor. “Referral” is fairly broad, and could mean everything from a personal letter of recommendation to an author saying “Oh yes, Bob’s my agent and I think he’s open to queries right now.”
3. Can’t prove cause/effect. This is a weakness of correlative data. I think the data worked well for busting certain myths, but if I catch anyone saying things like “Jim Hines proved that if you get an undergrad degree in English, you’ll sell a novel faster,” then I will personally boot you in the head. See here for a good example of correlation =/= causation re: pirates and global warming.
4. Limited scope. I restricted this survey to authors who had published at least one novel with a professional ($2000 or higher advance) publisher. Not everyone shares the goal of publishing professionally. For those who prefer the small press, non-fiction, script writing, short fiction, or other forms of writing, the path to breaking in might be very different.
I’m sure there are other flaws. However, it was my goal and my hope that even with these problems, the data I gathered would be useful in talking about how writers break in, and would be much better than the anecdotal “evidence” usually cited in such conversations.
Steven Saus’ Analysis of my Survey Data: Steven ran my numbers through some heavy-duty statistical software and came up with all sorts of info, including this graph showing the apparent trend in how submissions have moved from direct-to-publisher more toward querying agents over the past few decades. For those who like to geek out on numbers and statistics, I recommend checking it out.
Tobias Buckell’s Author Advance Survey: Data from 108 authors about novel advances, showing trends over time and over the course of authors’ careers.
Megan Crewe’s Publishing Connections Survey: Data from 270 authors on whether you need connections to break in. Her results tend to match my own on this one.
SFWA’s Online Information Center: Includes essays, resources, and advice for new writers from the Science Fiction & Fantasy Writers of America. (Thanks to Charlie Stross for the link.)
My thanks once again to everyone who participated in the study, who spread the links to other writers, and for all of the support and encouragement. I’m quite pleased with the way this turned out, and I hope it’s helpful to others.
In conclusion (and in true Mythbusters style) I present you with this artistic rendering of my editor when she learns how much time I’ve spent on this survey instead of working on my next book:
Alice
March 25, 2010 @ 4:47 pm
Thanks for doing this. Fascinating results.
Jim C. Hines
March 25, 2010 @ 4:51 pm
You’re very welcome. I’m just pleased so many authors took the time to participate.
L. Jagi Lamplighter (Wright)
March 25, 2010 @ 4:57 pm
Beautifully done. Sorry about your editor. Nice fireball, though. I once saw a Japanese anime with a guy who could recover from turning into a nuclear explosion…maybe being in sf/fantasy publishing, your editor will be granted this power.
But really…very nice survey, thanks.
Sean Williams
March 25, 2010 @ 5:20 pm
This is really great, Jim. Full marks!
Glenda Larke
March 25, 2010 @ 5:45 pm
Thanks so much for doing this, Jim. I have already been pointing young writers this way! Definitely I agree with your assessment that being proactive helps – in retrospect, I feel sure that I could have been published earlier. My main problem was that I lived in a country (pre-internet) that had no such resources to draw on. With today’s connectivity, no one has that excuse any more!
Laurisa Reyes
March 25, 2010 @ 6:12 pm
Hi Jim.
Loved your survey! I am a recent convert to your site and have found it interesting. I am fortunate enough to be one of the lucky 246 who responded, having just sold my first book at the age of 41.
You mentioned your editor…I am searching, searching, searching for one who can help me peddle my remaining five novels. Obviously your editor’s done a great job by you. Is he/she open to taking on new clients?
Jim C. Hines
March 25, 2010 @ 8:01 pm
I never underestimate my editor. I’m sure she’ll be fine in a day or two 🙂
Jim C. Hines
March 25, 2010 @ 8:02 pm
Same here — there’s so much I look back on and think, “If I’d started working harder sooner” or “If I’d concentrated on novels instead of worrying as much about short fiction” and so on… I was fortunate to have some advice from Speculations, one of the early writing boards, but it was nothing like what’s out there today.
Jim C. Hines
March 25, 2010 @ 8:04 pm
Hi Laurisa, and congratulations on the sale!
My editor one of the two in-house editors at DAW, and I don’t believe she does freelance editing. (Knowing her workload, I can’t imagine how she’d have the time.)
What genre are you writing in?
Best,
Jim
Carolyn Jewel
March 25, 2010 @ 8:45 pm
Thanks for the time you spent on this. It’s wonderful info. I hope your editor recovers quickly.
Maureen McGowan
March 25, 2010 @ 9:01 pm
What an awesome study. Great job and thanks for sharing. As someone who’s written mainstream, romance, and YA… I think the only thing that might not transfer to all genres is the short story part. But that’s only because I think there are more venues for publishing short stories in the SF/F world. So, if you’d had more writers outside your genre, that particular one would have mattered even less, I suspect.
Maya M.
March 25, 2010 @ 9:33 pm
Loved the editor picture. Think my tween will try to emulate Paolini despite your collected evidence.
Tweets that mention Jim C. Hines » First Novel Survey Results -- Topsy.com
March 26, 2010 @ 12:37 am
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Carolyn Jewel, Maili, Jessica Scott, Leah Cypess, Lauren Faith and others. Lauren Faith said: RT @JessicaScott09: RT @cjewel: Publishing myths busted and confirmed via data from authors. Check it out, from Auth… http://bit.ly/cKHnIE […]
Jim C. Hines
March 26, 2010 @ 6:36 am
I suspect you’re correct — there’s a lot of variation in the short fiction market across genres. If I was feeling really ambitious, I’d try to break that one down by genre. Maybe I’ll come back to that later if nobody else runs with the data 🙂
D. D. Tannenbaum
March 26, 2010 @ 6:52 am
Jim,
Thanks for all of your hard work! It’s nice to know it’ll be another six years before I’m published! 🙂 But seriously, information like this is crucial to anyone wanting to write. It gives a realistic idea of what to expect.
Jim C. Hines
March 26, 2010 @ 7:34 am
I do think you can learn a lot from self-publishing. I’ve used Lulu.com for a few small, personal projects, and it was very educational. I got a much better idea about some of the other work that goes into turning a manuscript into a real book.
That said, Paolini is definitely the exception to the rule.
Victoria Janssen
March 26, 2010 @ 8:20 am
Thanks for doing this, Jim!
Ken Schneyer
March 26, 2010 @ 8:42 am
Dunno how significant this is, but:
Of the writers who had never sold short fiction before, 41 out of 116 (35%) sold their novel on its first submission, wheareas:
Of the writers who had previously sold at least piece of short fiction, 61 out of 130 (47%) sold their novel on its first submission, and
Of those writers who sold more than 5 pieces of short fiction (the median for those who sold any), 35 of 70 (50%) sold their novel on its first submission.
Ken Schneyer
March 26, 2010 @ 8:45 am
Excuse me: that last figure is for those who sold 5 or more.
For those who sold more than 5, the figure is 28 out of 59 (47%).
Jim C. Hines
March 26, 2010 @ 8:45 am
Ooh — cool! I don’t know whether the numbers would reach the point of statistical significance, but that’s a very interesting trend. Thanks for breaking that down!
Jacqueline Seewald
March 26, 2010 @ 9:40 am
A valuable service to other writers, Jim.
Jackie Griffey
March 26, 2010 @ 10:12 am
Jim: just plain luck sometimes is the answer.(ex, 1) I’d sent and was waiting for results on one MS when I cautiously sent five chapters of another MS to the publisher – they liked the second one so well they immediately offered a contract on it.
ex 2) on being offered an audio contract on a book I asked why they hadn’t taken the first one I sent. They said the ‘reader’ thought there are too many books full of recipes out – the name of it was Recipe for Trouble) I was floored. “But there wasn’t even one recipe in it!” Just happened to get the wrong ‘reader’ evidently. They gave me a contract on the second one (which doesn’t have any recipes in it either lol.)
Thanks for all the info and helpful tips,
Jackie Griffey
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March 26, 2010 @ 6:45 pm
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Tess Gerritsen
March 27, 2010 @ 7:29 am
What a terrific study! I’ve posted a link to it over on my website.
And I turn out to be one of your “average” writers. I didn’t know anyone, took about 5 years to sell my first book, have no advanced writing degree, and sold almost no short fiction.
Gail Gray
March 27, 2010 @ 8:02 am
This survey is amazing. Thank you so much. I know it had to take hours and hours of work. You’ve offered authors and publishers so many insights as to where the business stands right now. As an author and a small press publisher, this info will prove invaluable to me.
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Jim C. Hines
March 27, 2010 @ 12:56 pm
Thanks, Jackie! That doesn’t actually sound like luck to me. You wrote a book, sent it out, and started working on the next. You followed up and sent the next one. That sounds like you the author doing the work to me. Timing and luck can play a part sometimes, but I don’t believe it’s a major element.
Jim C. Hines
March 27, 2010 @ 12:57 pm
Thanks for the link, Tess!
Jim C. Hines
March 27, 2010 @ 12:58 pm
You’re very welcome, Gail. It was a fair amount of work, but I enjoy stuff like this. I geek out about the graphs, and I had way too much fun putting some of those blue title graphics together 🙂
I’m glad it’s helpful!
Eileen Wiedbrauk
March 27, 2010 @ 2:56 pm
This is great! It’s wonderful that you took the time and effort to put these numbers together, and I absolutely love that you’ve gone about it as an attempt to debunk the myths of “good advice.” I’ll be linking to this in my next blog post for sure.
Kan
March 27, 2010 @ 11:47 pm
One of these people had sold four hundred stories by age 23? That’s incredible. It was in 1982, as well, when there probably weren’t nearly as many crap e-zines to publish stories in. The sheer amount of typing / carbon copying / postage the submission process alone must have required alone is kind of mind-boggling (not to mention the actual, you know, composition).
Shevi
March 28, 2010 @ 2:31 am
Amazing job, and very helpful. I’ve been telling new writers this for years. Of course, some of them then tell promptly tell me that I’m a big old meanie for raining on their parade. There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Now let me check how well I do . . . B.A. in English Literature? Check. Graduate degree? No. Conventions? Check. Weekend-long workshops? Check. Longer workshops? Not yet. Connection with agents through referrals or through critiques at workshops? Check. Now if I can only luck out and cut those 11 years to 8, I should be selling my first novel this year. Sweet.
Thanks so much for all your hard work! You rock!
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 8:08 am
That one blew my mind a bit, but it does seem to support the idea that there were more short fiction markets at the time. It’s a heck of a lot of work, but not impossible. I suspect Jay Lake is approaching those numbers these days, if he’s not there already.
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 8:09 am
Thanks, Shevi. There are some people out there who just aren’t going to listen. Doesn’t matter how long you’ve been doing this or how much data you have to back it up. I figure they’ll either learn or they won’t, but I’m not going to spend too much time/energy trying to convince them.
Best of luck with that novel!
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 8:12 am
Thanks, Eileen! Stubborn, reticent, and free thinking, eh? Yeah, that works pretty well for me too 🙂
D. Diane Germanowski
March 28, 2010 @ 8:41 am
What great information! Inspirational for many, including me. A little scary at the low percentage of mystery books but I was including some fantasy. You have given me added direction and credibility to what I already instinctively knew. Here I come, conventions, conferences, and week end classes.
Thanks!
Diane
Betsy
March 28, 2010 @ 9:10 am
Thanks for all your effort, Jim. Lately, I’ve been wondering if I should go back & get an advanced degree in Lit. After reviewing these results, looks like I’d be better off investing my time in writing & submitting than spending the extra $$ and time in the classroom!
Patricia Girgenti
March 28, 2010 @ 9:17 am
Thanks for the information. Offers us hopefuls encouragement and inspiration.
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 10:30 am
I don’t regret getting the Masters degree, but I found it more helpful in learning to write nonfiction, and in helping me develop my teaching skills. For fiction writing, I’ve gotten more out of just writing and submitting, and out of getting feedback from other fiction writers.
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 10:31 am
I tried to get more mystery/thriller writers, but unfortunately that didn’t work out. Still, I suspect a lot of the results do generalize across genres.
Jim C. Hines
March 28, 2010 @ 10:32 am
You’re very welcome, Patricia!
Steve Kelner
March 28, 2010 @ 10:56 am
Great work! As a social scientist who has applied science to writing myself (see my nonfiction book) and has been analyzing things like gender and awards in the mystery field, I really appreciate an empirical approach like this one. I was also relieved to see that my own informal research is on target.
SuperHappyJen
March 28, 2010 @ 11:15 am
This is actually very helpful. Thanks, Jim!
Note to self: find an agent.
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March 28, 2010 @ 7:31 pm
[…] agents? Brewing potions from eye of newt and toe of frog? Author Jim C. Hines took a survey, published the results and busted a few myths along the way. I’m happy to note that I still have several years to […]
David Alton Dodd
March 29, 2010 @ 4:26 am
Brilliant! Very good piece of work, Mr. Hines. Not that I’m against agents, but I was very pleased to see that many authors are publishing first time out without an agent (I’ll assume that many picked one up afterward, they are quite worth the money when it comes to contract negotiation). Well done!
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[…] author Jim C. Hines has run an informal poll regarding first novel sales and what it takes to sell a first novel.
Jim C. Hines
March 29, 2010 @ 7:06 am
David — that’s my guess as well, that many of those who sold the first book without an agent then used the offer to get one. (That’s the advice I was given when a publisher made an offer to me.) But it’s not something I asked in the study, so I couldn’t say for certain.
I agree with you that a good agent is worth the money. I know mine has more than earned his 15% over the years.
Paul Chernoch
March 29, 2010 @ 8:24 am
Thank you for your hard work. Years ago, someone told me that it takes about ten years to break in as a writer. Considering myself a smarter than average person, I figured I could beat that. After working at it for seven years but still not published, I am discovering that I am pretty average. Your survey results are humbling. Or does it mean that most writers are smarter than average? that would be hoping too much…
Kathy Phillips
March 29, 2010 @ 9:44 am
Extremely impressed — long time since I did the whole mode/median/mean thing in school. More to the point, I would surmise that the experience of the mystery authors might track those of their SF/fantasy brethren (and sistren). Perhaps of continuing interest would be to determine the number of authors from both genres who were able to give up their day jobs to pursue their writing careers. It seems that more mystery writers will hover around the bestseller lists while more SF/fantasy writers (most recently in the vampire/ghost worlds) would make a living but wade contentedly at mid-list making just enough to go on but not exactly challenge Stephanie or Charlaine. Not surprisingly, the genres are finding a way to merge on their way to the bestseller list. For the next survey.
Jim C. Hines
March 29, 2010 @ 3:02 pm
The next survey. Yes. Um, if you need me, I’ll be running away now 🙂
Though I *would* be curious to see some data on going full time, how long it takes and how many of us ever manage it…
Jim C. Hines
March 29, 2010 @ 3:03 pm
Thanks, Paul. In my experience, writers tend to be a pretty bright group of people. But then, it’s possible I’m a little biased 😉
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Steve Kelner
March 29, 2010 @ 10:26 pm
Jim, I’m a member of Sisters in Crime (yes, yes, I’m a male member, I know…), and on the Steering Committee for the Internet Chapter. We’d like to do a similar survey for mystery writers. A couple of questions – first, any recommendations? Second, do you mind if we use your exact questions, barring those that didn’t work? I’m thinking of using something like SurveyMonkey to make it swift and easy to manage. Drop me a line, if you would, at the email address I used above. Thanks!
Steve Kelner
Jim C. Hines
March 30, 2010 @ 8:00 am
E-mail went out a minute ago.
Vickie Stahl
March 30, 2010 @ 10:35 am
Thanks for doing this. It’s good to see that I’m going in the right direction according to your survey. Submitting to agents over a good five to ten years and receving enough rejections to wallpaper your closet is still the way to go. Yay! I’m almost there.
Jim C. Hines
March 30, 2010 @ 12:43 pm
You’re very welcome! I wish I hadn’t messed up the rejections question. I know most authors have a good collection. My box had somewhere between 500 and 600 of the things the last time I counted. I think it would be comforting to see that pretty much everyone gets rejected — a lot — as they’re trying to break in.
Steve Kelner
March 30, 2010 @ 12:58 pm
Oh, rejection is definitely the norm. My wife Toni L. P. Kelner had around 100 for her first novel (one said “plot good, characters terrible,” and another “characters great, plot terrible.” Hmmm), excluding various short stories, etc. I collected some of the more impressive stories for my book on motivating writers: _Dune_ was rejected by “every publisher in New York” – around forty. Jonathan Livingston Seagull was rejected by even more — 43, i think — and I know one of the editors, who told me “I’d reject it again!” William Gibson took four years to sell “Johnny Mnemonic,” but got noticed and asked to write _Neuromancer_. Mystery writer Anne Perry wrote ten books in different time periods, all of which were rejected until the Edwardian-era novel hit (in the US, not her home UK), and she spent the next 20 years writing nothing but Edwardian stories!
Kathryn Esplin
April 1, 2010 @ 1:57 pm
Great survey, Jim. I was an English major, and worked toward an MA in English, but since I just ‘fell’ into journalism and then got a master’s in that – I dropped the Lit MA, in favor of a job choice that would allow me to write for money while I figured out how to get a novel going.
I stopped writing while my kids were growing. Now that they’re in college, I started again.
When I sell, I will let you know. (Am finished with my first of several WIPS) and have a request for a partial – from a conf. Most get rejected at this stage. Sigh.
I’ve posted a link to my page at
http://www.kathryneo.gather.com
J. Mark Miller
April 2, 2010 @ 4:21 pm
Thanks for the insight. This is actually quite inspirational for an aspiring writer. Now the light at the end of the tunnel seems just a lttle brighter.
XandraG
April 8, 2010 @ 6:52 pm
Thanks so much for this–what an amazing bunch of findings! I’d love to figure out a way to cross-reference these findings with a timeline of events occurring in the publishing industry (ie, consolidation of publishers, transitions from indie to chain bookstores, shift from direct solicitation to publishers versus publishers only accepting agented queries, etc. I’ve been climbing uphill for about 14 years now and it seems that “good advice” or the “right” way to break in changes every 3 or 4 years or so.
Well done on a pretty thorough myth cross-exam!
Jim C. Hines
April 8, 2010 @ 6:54 pm
Thanks! There’s an awful lot of advice out there, but in the end, I think the most important part is to keep writing and keep submitting. Everything else is details. (Okay, some of those details are pretty important, but you get the idea 🙂 )
DAvid G. Hartwell
April 8, 2010 @ 7:47 pm
Nice work, and accords with my own knowledge of how things work. I am one of those editors who reads short fiction, and sometimes asks if there is a novel in the works.
Aside: Would you permit republication of this piece, (not of course the comments) in NYRSF? We would pay our usual token fee and print it.
David Hartwell
Paul Wilson
April 8, 2010 @ 8:34 pm
Tor recommended reading your survey, and I can understand why. Truly fascinating stuff – thanks for the effort.
Did your survey cover eBooks directly or otherwise? How do you feel about direct eBook publishing? I’m tending towards viewing this as something akin to an existing small press, with many of the distribution difficulties.
James Gray
April 8, 2010 @ 11:23 pm
Impressive. It’s fascinating to see this sort of breakdown, even knowing that the road is paved with rejection letters.
Did you notice any trends with subgenre or style of writing? For example, I remember reading at one point that “light fantasy” is a harder sell (but perhaps that specific case no longer applies).
Jim C. Hines
April 9, 2010 @ 7:37 am
The survey didn’t really get into ebooks. The requirement was a novel sale for an advance of at least $2000. If someone had an ebook deal that qualified, there was nothing preventing them from participating in the survey, but I don’t think I had many (if any) of those.
My own feelings? I tend to agree with you, that right now it’s akin to a lot of what you get with the small press. However, I don’t have a lot of experience in that area, and I don’t know how things are going to change in the future.
Jim C. Hines
April 9, 2010 @ 7:39 am
The genre breakdown wasn’t that detailed, I’m afraid.
Anecdotally, my first three novels with DAW were all light fantasy. The first one earned offers from two major publishers, and a nibble from a third. But I wouldn’t try to generalize from a single example.
Xander
April 11, 2010 @ 5:42 pm
Whoa. Just, whoa. To be honest, I’m thrilled to see something like this. Especially that bit on the time frame before selling a book. Makes me more confident in my own writing, to be honest. Thanks!
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John Brewer
April 12, 2010 @ 3:36 pm
Jim, I’ve been writing for nearly a dozen years with no luck yet and was really running out of energy. Your survey shows that I’m just now at the average. Should be worth about two more years at the desk.
THX!
John
Gunnar Helliesen
April 12, 2010 @ 4:02 pm
Thank you for doing this and for publishing the results! Absolutely fascinating and invaluable for a newbie like myself.
Veronica Worthington
April 12, 2010 @ 4:26 pm
I think you would have come up with some interesting and powerful results if you had included all undergraduate and graduate degrees in your study. The stick-to-it-ive-ness of someone who stayed in college is, I think, a strong indicator of an author’s ability to finish a book. Also, many other degrees require a great deal of writing and research that lends itself well to writing a book.
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April 15, 2010 @ 9:41 am
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[…] 23, 2010 · Leave a Comment Via Charlie Stross: Fantasy author Jim Hines has posted data from a survey of professionally published novelists; Steven Saus has posted additional analyses. Data of note [with code abbreviations in brackets] […]
Jaleh
April 28, 2010 @ 1:06 pm
That’s a fascinating survey. I’m glad Juliette Wade at TalkToYoUniverse pointed me here. I don’t feel so bad about how long I’ve already spent on my main WIP. (4.5 years so far) Granted my first couple years was spotty writing. I wasn’t all that dedicated to writing until after I joined an online writer’s group. They got my ember flaring to greater creativity and deeper devotion to the craft. My writing–and time management–has improved immensely because of my fellow members.
Paul Malone
May 2, 2010 @ 7:55 am
Really interesting article, Jim,
Many thanks for posting the survey. I’m sure many writers will be surprised and heartened to see some of those writing myths debunked. I hope your editor has forgiven you for the hours taken away from your writing.
Regards
Paul
Susan
May 13, 2010 @ 7:37 pm
This is a fascinating survey and I’m going to forward the link to my friend who’s working on her first novel, but I have two criticisms:
1. Since it was skewed heavily toward SF/Fantasy/romance authors, I really question whether the results can be generalized to other genres. My understanding is that those markets are easier to break into than others.
2. What precisely does “How many years had you been writing before you made your first professional novel sale?” mean? I’ve been writing fiction since I was a teenager, but I didn’t actually complete a novel until I was 28. Now I’m 34. So if I sold a manuscript tomorrow, would I say I’ve been writing for 20 years or 6 or something else?
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Jim C. Hines
May 14, 2010 @ 9:44 am
I talk about both sample bias and question imprecision in the Survey Flaws section of the write-up.
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Kenneth Mark Hoover
May 15, 2010 @ 7:09 am
Very interesting. There are some definite trends here, despite the sample size. May I post a link to this on my website?
Jim C. Hines
May 15, 2010 @ 8:15 am
Feel free, thanks!
AliB
May 16, 2010 @ 1:07 pm
Great survey and in some ways encouraging to all those ‘great unpublished’ – of whom I am one. Have just posted about it on my blog. Hope the way I’ve presented it is okay by you. http://debutnovelist.wordpress.com
AliB
Jim C. Hines
May 16, 2010 @ 1:15 pm
Thanks, Ali. Your write-up looks good to me!
Best,
Jim
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May 16, 2010 @ 3:38 pm
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Desiree
May 17, 2010 @ 12:02 am
Love it. Thanks so much for the detailed analysis. I’m not sure what my next step is…but this provides thoughtful information.
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Catherine Dove
May 17, 2010 @ 8:33 pm
I enjoyed every bit of this, but as a reclusive and impoverished person (who has an exhausting 4-hour commute every weekday), I was thrilled to read the section “You Have to Know Somebody”. It gave me hope!
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Matt Fishwick
May 19, 2010 @ 7:55 am
Great post with a fantastic insight. But it does reinforce the point of me actually finishing a novel before I even think about submitting it.
Jen Brubcher
May 20, 2010 @ 10:26 am
This is fascinating stuff and potentially very useful, especially in debunking myths that stop authors in their tracks with doubt. Thank you very much!
Lynda Williams
May 20, 2010 @ 10:52 am
Pleasure to read. Interesting but not surprising. Surfed here from Eva Bishop’s tweat.
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Brian
June 12, 2010 @ 8:40 pm
I know this is an old post but I had to post to show a major flaw in your data for the self-publishing graph. All that graph says is that 1 person self-published a novel and successfully sold it to a major publisher, it has no mention of how many actually attempted to do it and fail. You would need data that shows how many of those authors even attempted that route, and then cross reference those two graphs. That graph alone shows that only one person was even willing to attempt that route. That isn’t to say you don’t have the data to support it, but those graphs don’t support the conclusion you came to regarding the self-publishing route.