 [ Amazon | B & N | Galaxy Misterioso ] | La muerte de impresión / publicación, parte MCCLWTFXVIII Dorchester Publishing ha anunciado recientemente que estaban dejando de lado su línea de mercado de masas y pasar a un modelo e-book/print-on-demand. Presidente de Dorchester, John Prebich describe su empresa como pioneros, con valentía nos conduce a la frontera electrónica. Esto ha llevado a una nueva ronda de "impresión se está muriendo", y los e-libros son el camino hacia el futuro. Hay un fervor casi religioso a la misma. JA Konrath sugiere el final está cerca para que los editores comerciales, y la auto-publicación es el camino a seguir. Sus fuentes anónimas afirman vender a través de los libros impresos es tan malo como el 20%. Él describe un autor (hipotética) publicadas por una editorial que recibe un anticipo de $ 50 mil y el 30% vende a través de, la venta de tan sólo 9000 copias impresas en el primer año Pero espera, vamos a retroceder y tomar otra mirada en Dorchester, que ha estado en problemas por un rato. "Dorchester tenía graves problemas de liquidez durante el año 2009." (Gracias a Nick Mamatas por ese enlace.) El paso a los libros electrónicos / POD no es tanto un gran paso hacia el futuro, ya que es un intento desesperado de un editor para permanecer en el negocio. En cuanto a Konrath, que ha hecho un excelente trabajo posicionando a sí mismo como un defensor de la auto-publicación. No tengo ninguna duda de que hablaba con alguien, en algún lugar, que informó de la venta directa puede ser tan malo como el 20%. But “as bad as” generally means the low edge of the bell curve. Not the normal or the average, but the worst-case scenario. To offer an alternate data point, my books have a sell-through around 80%. I'm not aware of anyone whose sell-through is down at 20-30%. I'm sure it happens, but to base an argument on those numbers is, in a word, silly. As for the rest of the example, well, I sell more than 9000 print copies in a year, and my advances are far lower than $50K. I'm not saying Konrath's example couldn't happen. Es posible. It's possible to be struck by lightning seven times , too. But it ain't the norm. Wait, you say. 80% sell-through still means 20% returns, right? Doesn't it make more sense to go electronic/PoD, where there are no returns and you can get 100% sell-through? Eso depende. 80% de qué? 100% of what? Konrath proposes that his hypothetical author will sell 5000 e-books in that first year. I'm curious where that number comes from, particularly given a New York Times report in which “publishers point out that e-books still represent a small sliver of total sales, from 3 to 5 percent.” If I had to choose, I'd take 80% of a 20K print run over 100% of the <1000 copies my books have sold electronically. Konrath also argues that: “The main reason we need publishers is for distribution. We can't get into Wal-Mart or Borders on own own. Se puede. So we accept 8% royalties in order to sell a lot of books. But if publishers are no longer printing books, there is ZERO reason to sign with them, because they no longer have that advantage.” Distribution is part of what my publisher does for me … but it's not the only thing. They pay professionals to create my cover art, and to edit, typeset, and proofread my book. They do the work of converting my books into electronic formats. They pay for advertising and promotion. Basically, they do a ton of work to sell my books, which allows me to worry about writing them. Publishing is changing. My guess is that we'll eventually hit a new equilibrium point between print and e-books, and I do think e-books will be a larger percentage of book sales than they are today. I'm not bashing self-publishing, either. For some people, it's the right choice. Konrath certainly makes it work. My friend John Fitch V sold more than 100 books last month, which is damn good for the self-published route. Both e-books and self-publishing have their strengths and advantages. And I could be wrong — it's possible print and/or commercial publishing are on the way out. But I've been hearing about the imminent death of print and commercial publishing for more than a decade, and it's getting a little old. 90 comments to The Death of Print/Publishing, Part MCCLWTFXVIII | |
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My main criticism of Konrath's arguments is that he says this as though it's sound advice for new and unpublished authors - and says it from the comfort of having the benefit of the years of hard work of both himself and his publisher. Those are things that a new and unpublished author just don't have. As you say, selling through 100 copies of a self-published book is pretty good, things being what they are.
Heck, I'd take 20% of the 20K print-run over your 100% of basically nothing. Even with 8% royalties… that's still a lot more, financially speaking, than the alternative.
Por supuesto. Cat Valente said the same thing when she released The Girl Who Circumnavigated Fairyland online. It was an incredibly successful book … but Cat is also an author who already has an audience. A brand new author doing the same thing would likely have gotten a very different result.
The cartoon… Hilarious. I LOL'd.
I agree with you that Dorchester isn't doing this to be progressive, they're spin-doctoring their financial decline. If they are financially declining badly enough for this, I can see where it's possible other publishers may eventually follow suit. But they may not.
I *do* actually think ebooks are the future, or at least they will be, IMO, the new MMPB. But, I don't think print will ever die completely.
I agree also that “as low as 20%…” doesn't mean that's how low everybody's sell-through or most sell-through is.
As for first year sales as a totally new indie ebook author, I think 5,000 copies are a bit high unless you have backlist or previous publishing experience/platform. I only sold about 3,000 copies of my debut novella in digital my first year. That's just my one experience, some people sell better than me, some sell worse than me, but I don't think 5k copies in one year would be the average for a brand new indie.
What I think will happen is that as stigma lowers, more people will choose to self-publish who “can” successfully get pro-cover art, editing, etc. And who “can” market and build a platform online, because of bigger profit potential for whatever stage they're at in their career. ie We should compare apples to apples and not a self-pubbing author to someone who gets a giant fabulous NY advance, because most people are on the midlist, some of them low on the midlist. In that case, self-pub might be financially smarter.
Commercial publishing will probably evolve, rather than die, but it won't be the only “acceptable” way to publish anymore. And that's as it should be, since this “revolution” has already happened in music and film.
My understanding is that 50% sell through is average. And talking to authors isn't going to get you straight answers, because actual print runs aren't listed on royalty statements.
Go drinking with some editors. Then you get more realistic numbers. And 20% does happen, and is becoming more common. Do you think Dorchester would be getting out of the PBO biz if they had an 80% sell through? Por supuesto que no lo haría.
I'm curious where that number comes from, particularly given a New York Times report in which “publishers point out that e-books still represent a small sliver of total sales, from 3 to 5 percent.
Selling 5000 ebooks a year is the low end of what I'm averaging with my six top sellers. High end is over 10,000 a year.
Consider if that is only 3% to 5% of the market. What will I be earning when ebooks are 40% of the market?
If I had to choose, I'd take 80% of a 20K print run over 100% of the <1000 copies my books have sold electronically.
Over the course of several years, I'd say that's a mistake. Especially in this publishing climate. Work out the numbers for three, five, and ten years.
On a trade paperback, earning $1.50 per book, selling 16,000 copies you'd make $24,000. No está mal. But you won't sell as many in year two. Or year five, if your book is even still in print then.
5000 ebooks a year would earn you $10,000. But next year, you have the potential to sell even more, as the ebook becomes more popular. My numbers have been steadily climbing. This holidays season will likely be huge for ereaders.
They pay professionals to create my cover art, and to edit, typeset, and proofread my book. etc.
And then you get between 6% and 15% of the cover price, which they set.
You really think that's a better deal than paying for these costs yourself and then earning 70% of a price you set? ¿En serio?
But I've been hearing about the imminent death of print and commercial publishing for more than a decade, and it's getting a little old.
Print never had direct competition before. Not like the threat Kindle is posing. And instead of rising to the challenge, publishers are making one giant mistake after another. The agency model lost money for publishers and authors, and alienated readers. Ebook prices are artificially inflated. DRM is archaic and costs customers. Trying to retrofit contracts to grab erights is reprehensible. There isn'ta single reason why publishers shouldn't have their own ereaders and websites with downloadable content. But instead of moving forward, they're fighting to keep things the same.
It's a fight they won't win.
“Selling 5000 ebooks a year is the low end of what I'm averaging with my six top sellers. High end is over 10,000 a year.”
Which is awesome, and I've said in the comments on LJ that I'm impressed at how well you've made this work. But you seem to believe that your case is in any way normal.
You've done a marvelous job of positioning yourself as a champion of self-publishing, and using that platform to promote yourself and your work. But you seem to believe that anyone can do the same.
It reminds me a bit of when people first started putting their novels online. Cory Doctorow made it work. So did John Scalzi. Both of these were people with preexisting audiences (like you had, thanks to your commercial publishing success), and they were doing it when it was a new thing. Whereas anyone who puts a book online today is going to see a very different and much more disappointing result.
“You really think that's a better deal than paying for these costs yourself and then earning 70% of a price you set? ¿En serio? "
Sí. Because most self-published authors do not sell the numbers you do. Your basing your arguments on extremes. Your 20% sell through is the low extreme of the bell curve. Your success as a self-published author is the high end. If you have data showing otherwise, I'd love to see it.
Because most self-published authors do not sell the numbers you do.
As compared to how much traditionally published authors earn? Isn't the average still $5000 per novel?
It's tough to make a living as an author, period. But if you're good enough to attract a major publisher, you'd be better served keeping your rights and self-pubbing, unless you're offered a huge deal.
I've never said that if you self pub, you can make $15ka month like me. But in the long run, I believe you can earn more money on ebooks than in print. Time will tell if I'm correct.
$5000 was the median advance for a *first* novel, according to Tobias Buckell's survey . Average was over $6000.
$5000 is the median *advance*–not the median of what authors earn. The study didn't include how many authors earned out and what kind of royalties they saw after earning out. The advance *shouldn't* be the only source of income for a book, and it's odd that authors nowadays are looking to the advance as the be-all on what they earn on a book. I can understand the fear of not earning out, and thus you want to make as much money up front as possible. But (and here is where a house that doesn't focus on blockbusters and supports the midlist for years to come has the advantage; a rare thing nowadays, I know) it really is to everyone's advantage if the advance is earned out sooner rather than later and starts paying out royalties right away.
If self-publishing is the right thing for a particular author to do, then I don't object to it. I have a few friends making livings on their self-published work, most notably Howard Tayler of Schlock Mercenary. That's *great* when it works (and yes, things like editing can be contracted out to freelancers; that's how I made much of my living the year I freelanced). But it's also important not to discount that publishers do bring a LOT to the table, especially strong independent publishers that know their niche and can market/sell to it better than one author can. This is especially true when selling children's/YA fiction in school and library markets, which is outside the NYT bestseller list and the laydown/sell-through numbers counted in bookstores.
(To clarify why I think it's as much to the benefit of the author to earn out as the publisher: the author who earns out early tends to be the author that publishers go back to for more, as opposed to books that don't earn out at all (considered “failures” at even astronomical sales numbers, because they didn't earn out the investment).)
Pero todo es discutible con, la auto-publicación sí. Sólo quería aclarar ese punto.
Ahora tengo curiosidad - lo fácil que es hacer las ventas al exterior de la auto-publicado títulos? Probablemente la mitad de mis ingresos proviene de las ventas al exterior de mis libros, que vienen porque mi agente es capaz de vender las ediciones estadounidenses en el extranjero. Si yo fuera la auto-publicación, me gustaría estar en mi propio para que, sin las conexiones de mi agente tiene.
Sé que es un poco fuera de hilo, pero es algo que vino a la mente mientras leía sus comentarios ...
No puedo imaginar que las ventas al exterior (a diferencia de las traducciones) son una venta fácil, ya que está efectivamente capaz de llegar a un público en línea. En mi humilde opinión, mientras que eReaders han superado con creces "early adopter" fase, estoy dispuesto a apostar que la mayoría de la gente la lectura de un dispositivo que no son noobs o bien, y puede moverse por país y las restricciones de DRM.
Creo que las ventas al exterior (que no son independientes del idioma extranjero) será una venta más difícil para todos los autores, no sólo auto-pubbed como los lectores electrónicos se vuelven más populares.
No voy a debatir acerca de la auto-publicación o méritos, sino como un bibliófilo, voy a comentar mi desagrado para los ebooks. ¿Por qué no me gustan los ebooks? Bueno, sí, hay ventajas, como tener toda tu biblioteca en un pendrive, pero E-lectores están lejos de ser perfecto en este momento. La lectura en un ordenador o iPad son opciones obvias, pero las cepas LCD tus ojos y son muy ligeras ni el peso ni el portátil. Claro que usted puede llevar su iPad o labtop en cualquier lugar, pero la duración de la batería en cualquiera de ellos es mínima en el mejor y son más pesados que un libro real, incluso un libro encuadernado. Luego nos trasladamos a los lectores electrónicos, que son bastante caros (por lo menos son 150 dólares más el costo de los libros). Ellos son el peso más ligero, portátil y tiene una duración de la batería increíble, pero no hay color (lo que no hay libros de historietas, no hay libros de imágenes, e incluso los libros para niños) y los límites en los formatos y lo que el trabajo en cada e-reader. Tampoco hay disponibilidad completa todavía. Hay algunas limitaciones importantes con este formato.
El gran problema con el formato de libro electrónico es que le quita toda la capacidad de recopilar de los libros. No hay primeras impresiones o ediciones raras. Absolutamente no hay manera de conseguir un libro electrónico firmado o personalizarlo para alguien. Se le quita mucho de lo que hace que los libros de una colección y no sólo algo que usted tiene. Los libros electrónicos son ideales para un lector casual, que recoge su última copia de Crepúsculo o Harry Potter o incluso a alguien que devora a Danielle Steel y Stephen King con gusto, pero no tanto para la gente, como yo, que tienen un gusto bastante ecléctico en los libros (Yo también he leído los cómics) y quiere / necesita una copia física del libro. Después de todo, decir que tienes un libro electrónico de Jane Austen Orgullo y prejuicio es agradable y todo, pero decir que tienes una edición firmada en primer lugar (nose si tal cosa existe, sólo estoy diciendo) está volviendo loco ORO.
Exactamente.
Recuerdo que hace años cuando el mundo de la música fue mi sobrino cd (una tuerca de la música que rabia) tuvo un momento muy duro con el formato. Personalmente, la música se refiere, no podría importarme menos lo que el formato en el que estés estoy todo el reproductor de mp3. CD son envasados y closet límite.
Pero un libro es algo diferente. Me gusta mi música, pero volviendo loco los libros de amor. Puedo, algún día, ir con un libro electrónico, pero no quiero tener nada que ver con un mundo donde no pueden cazar para obtener una copia firmada de uno de mis autores favoritos, oscuros.
Sólo un pedo viejo opinión.
Hace cinco años, yo habría estado de acuerdo con usted. Desde entonces he conocido convertidos por completo demasiados - y convertirse en uno de ellos yo mismo. En mi (muestra anecdótica, conveniencia) la experiencia, una vez que alguien se decide a probar un eReader, que cambia rápidamente en casi en su totalidad.
Sigo comprando libros impresos (me compré una versión impresa de la venganza de Red Hood, por ejemplo), pero encuentra que acabo de leer una copia digital (que también compré el libro de bolsillo después de darse cuenta se sentó en mi estantería durante dos semanas).
"Los libros electrónicos son ideales para un lector casual, que recoge su última copia de Crepúsculo o Harry Potter o incluso a alguien que devora a Danielle Steel y Stephen King con gusto, pero no tanto para la gente, como yo, que tienen un gusto bastante ecléctico en el los libros (yo también he leído los cómics) y quiere / necesita una copia física del libro. Después de todo, decir que tienes un libro electrónico de Jane Austen Orgullo y prejuicio es agradable y todo, pero decir que tienes una edición firmada en primer lugar (nose si tal cosa existe, sólo estoy diciendo) está volviendo loco ORO ".
Bueno, en primer lugar, permítanme señalar la ironía de que Harry Potter no está disponible en libro electrónico.
En segundo lugar, wow, que un párrafo displicente. He leído acerca de 8.3 libros por semana (dependiendo de la cantidad de tiempo que tengo). Soy muy ecléctico, leyendo la historia, política, literatura y diversos géneros. ¡Oh, he leído los cómics también.
Hace 4 años, no me podía imaginar haciendo eso. Desde entonces, mi esposo y yo hemos reducido a la mitad nuestra colección de libros de papel de 3000 + libros, reemplazado casi todos de la misma en ebook. Vamos a seguir haciendo esto. Vamos a recuperar toda una habitación en nuestra casa. No vamos a comprar más estanterías (el último recuento fue 18). No vamos a pagar cientos de dólares para hacer esto la próxima vez que nos movemos casas.
Además, mis ojos disfrutar de ser capaz de cambiar el tamaño del texto cada vez más como me acerco a 50. Mi mano se agradece no tener que mantener un libro de historia 3 libras, y la comodidad y la facilidad significa que leer más y para sesiones más largas. Me gusta ser capaz de recortar presupuestos y guardarlos para poder escribir sobre ellos más adelante, o simplemente pensar en ellos. Y, como un lector muy ávido, que tiene varios libros en el dispositivo es grande, porque puedo cambiar lo que estoy leyendo con facilidad, dependiendo de mi estado de ánimo.
Creo que estás muy perdido el tren en su caracterización de los lectores de libros electrónicos.
Además, érase una vez he recogido las primeras ediciones, y de ellos firmado. Con los años, yo en realidad no leía esos libros, en lugar de tratar de mantenerlos pristene. De alguna manera, ahora, que parece ilógico. Yo valoro los libros (E o de otro tipo) más de las palabras en ellos.
En Marcon, yo estaba en un panel con un señor que no podía leer los libros regulares debido a las condiciones de visión, y la mayor parte de lo que él quería leer no estaba disponible en letra grande. Su eReader le permitió seguir leyendo. Buen punto.
No pensé que me había tocado este punto en el 48, pero no lo es, debido a una confluencia de problemas oculares. Yo estaría desprovista si yo no podía seguir w / mi ávida lectura. Y aunque yo prefiero los libros de papel para libros de cocina todavía (soy reacio a llevar a mi libro electrónico en la cocina), estoy empezando a obtener más de ellos en formato electrónico, ya que su impresión es muy pequeño tan maldito! He comprado una cubierta impermeable para mi iPad para leer recetas en la cocina. Yo uso mi Kindle, pero el iPad es mucho mejor las cosas con ilustraciones y fotografías, y la fatiga visual LCD no es tanto de un problema con una recetas.
Y ese señor es correcto - letras grandes es bastante raro, y por lo general mucho más caro!
Eso sí que es una de las grandes ventajas de los libros electrónicos. Tengo un amigo que es ciego, y para mi primer libro, tuve que convertir sólo mi manuscrito en texto sin formato para que su equipo podía leer por ella. La idea de los lectores electrónicos de poder hacer conversión de texto a voz es impresionante. Asimismo, la capacidad de ajustar el tamaño del texto para facilitar la lectura.
Es. Yo que pensar que mis problemas oculares reduciría mi lectura. Que, literalmente, me deprimió - Yo era el chico que me son castigados en la escuela para la lectura de libros mientras que el profesor estaba hablando. Mis padres, cuando me tenía que castigar, lo hizo mediante la adopción de los libros de distancia * *! Estoy tan aliviado de que soy capaz de seguir alimentando mi adicción libro.
Mis problemas con todo el brillo y el glamour de la auto-publicación es como muy poco se centra en los números reales. Incluso Mark Coker (ese es el nombre, creo yo, el dueño de Smashwords) admite que es difícil para el autor indie para hacer mucho más en la publicación de uno mismo, porque el "típico" de auto-pubbed autor sólo vende un puñado de libros.
Hay 600.000 + obras figuran ahora en el Kindle. De los mega-éxitos que escuchamos, ¿cuántos son exactamente lo contrario? ¿Cuántos de ellos sólo han vendido copias de 5-10 y por qué no se escucha más sobre los hechos concretos, realidades, en lugar de ostentación y el glamour y los éxitos mega-?
Lo siento, pero si voy a tener a alguien por ahí diciendo a los escritores de la belleza de la auto-publicación, entonces hay que educar sobre los hechos más duros, también.
Mi venden a través de más de 80%, y definitivamente estoy haciendo más de 5k un libro. Estoy abierto a un escritor haciendo lo que ellos necesitan para hacer la escritura de su carrera, ya sea auto-pub, epub o tradicional. Pero también creo que los que abogan por las áreas tienen que ser abierto y honesto acerca de ambos las cosas buenas y las duras realidades.
Autores consagrados con una presencia establecida que tienen muchos seguidores van a tener un ir mucho más fácil con la auto-publicación que el típico Joe Blow que está leyendo acerca de los mega-éxitos, pero a menos que se eduque en esas cosas? Está en un rudo despertar.
Recuerdo haber leído un artículo en el que admitió la mayoría de los Smashwords autopublicados títulos no vendió muchas copias. Que aún trabaja para ellos, porque hacer un beneficio en la gran cantidad de libros que ofrecen. Pero sí, para todos los Konrath pretender hacer seis cifras de la auto-publicados e-libros, como otros muchos están haciendo seis dólares?
It's always taken 30s to 1m for Smashwords' site to load for me, so maybe they aren't not the best example.
Personally as an author, I largely intend to make available work that's already existent elsewhere where the rights have reverted to me. As Laura pointed out on Facebook (and has been mentioned here), promotion is a big part of things. I'd say that role of matching reader to author is the primary venue in which publishers can distinguish themselves.
I don't put nearly as much value in the covers, editing, and proofreading side of things. Or rather, I think they're extremely valuable - but going through a publisher isn't the only way to go anymore. A huge thing for me when shopping (the eventual) novel will be considering how - and how much - the publisher plans to market the work. Those connections are really the only thing I can't hire a freelancer to do at this point (or do myself).
When my contribution to the Chain Story goes live, I'll be interested in seeing what correlations end up existing between readers and direct income for me. That will be a HUGE defining moment for me in terms of how bullish I am for true independence. Remind me to let you know how it comes out.
No, you're right, there are skilled freelance editors and proofreaders (that's one portion of my income, as a matter of fact!
) and artists. But my point isn't that they aren't available, but that many, many authors won't use them. I have no idea how many readers will actually think, “I've read three self-published books that absolutely sucked, I won't do it anymore.” I just think it's a possibility. Because as a freelance editor, I know how much cr** is really out there.
Plus, there's the fact that those services don't come cheap. Not good ones.
Natalie, you are absolutely correct. I've also met quite a few people that complained about professional digital books that were poorly formatted, not proofread, and the like. Enough so that I've started to let people know that I do ePub and Mobi conversion as a freelancer.
But that's part of the business aspect of writing. If a home contractor builds things on the cheap, they get poor returns on their business pretty quickly. The same thing will happen with digital publishing. I mentioned the Chain Story - it's a project that Mike Stackpole put together that's pretty much by invitation. But that also means that the folks contributing are pros, and are doing the best they can to put together a quality product.
That kind of consortium (or imprint) - where there's a reasonable expectation of self-policed quality - can help deal with the problems of both discovery and quality. (We all share audiences with each other.) It's the role publishers have had in the past - and what I really feel they need to emphasize now if they want to survive in the future. I hope they do so - but I'm not sure (or optimistic) the folks in boardrooms far removed are able to see that. It would make things MUCH easier for good emerging writers like myself.
“If a home contractor builds things on the cheap, they get poor returns on their business pretty quickly. The same thing will happen with digital publishing.”
Lo hizo! E-publishing has been around for more than a decade. 13 years ago, it was deemed the revolution in publishing. Becoming a publisher was so easy, dozens or even hundreds of publishers appeared overnight, their owners and staff often having very little business or publishing/editing experience. And yes, people stayed away in droves after sampling horribly formatted, edited, and proofread books. Though it didn't help that affordable eReaders flopped until recently, it took a very long time for the good e-publishers to overcome the stigma.
As for the “shared audiences” aspect…IMO, the Internet makes us feel like our small, intimate community is everyone there is. There are far, far more people who aren't part of the community than are. (Unfortunately! LOL)
Re: On-The-Cheap. You're absolutely right - but I think that's an always ongoing process, not a limited time one. There's still turnover in print publishers as well for similar reasons. For a comics analogy, for every Dark Horse there's four or five failed imprints.
Re: audiencias compartidas. Sí, es una piscina más pequeña. Eso es realmente donde los costos hundidos entrar Si usted está invirtiendo $ 5K en un libro (a través de editores, artistas, correctores de pruebas), entonces después de vender 500 copias en todo $ 9,99 después de eso es la ganancia. (Creo que probablemente podría encontrar esos servicios por mucho menos, sin embargo.) Entiendo 500 copias vendidas sería una tirada de impresión desastrosa.
Será la realidad soportar eso? Yo creo que puede - pero yo no puedo decir que con certeza todavía. Pocas personas están siendo transparentes acerca de sus finanzas.
Sólo una liendre, si usted es 5.000 dólares en el proyecto y vender 500 en $ 9.99, usted sigue siendo de $ 5 en el agujero antes de que usted cuenta para el envío adicional, el tiempo necesario para procesar los pedidos, el mercado y vender el libro.
Tienes razón en lo de los $ 9,99 - números que fue modificando sobre la marcha y la mala añadido. Por no mencionar que los estoy sacando de la nada.
Sin embargo, si usted está la distribución digital, no hay gastos de envío, procesamiento, etc Hay una inversión de tiempo, por supuesto. Ajustar los números en consecuencia y averiguar lo que su propio punto de equilibrio es. Mi idea básica de ello es que la eliminación de los costos físicos no baja los costes hundidos a un punto, lo que permite menor "la venta va" a ser rentable.
Bueno, bueno, entonces usted tiene que calcular los costos de servidores, hosting, ancho de banda, etc
Pero sí, la reducción del costo hundido hará pistas abajo posible, pero creo que ese es el argumento a favor de las editoriales pequeñas.
Creo que lo que Natalie está tratando de expresar, sin poner palabras en su boca-es que los lectores de valores continuos puestos en el control del acceso que los editores lo hacen, así que sí, puede auto-publicación y encontrar editores y artistas de cobertura y para dar formato a las personas para que , pero para muchos lectores, que no les aseguro que alguien, incluso una persona a la editorial, ha dicho que "sí, vamos a gastar el dinero para publicar esto, porque los lectores tienen que leer esto." bueno, malo o indiferente, me Creo que es por esta razón que la relación autor / editor es una de beneficio mutuo, y creo que es por eso que muchos lectores no / no comprar los libros de auto-pubbed-que quieren conocer a alguien ya ha "ordenado" para ellos . También creo que es por eso que los editores como una marca son cada vez más importante en el mercado digital, el lector quiere confiar en su capacidad de clasificación!
¡Oh, no, por favor no ponga palabras tan inteligentes, elocuentes en mi boca! LOL
Pero sí, eso es exactamente lo que quiero decir. En una mucho más inteligente, muy elocuente.
Si alguien saca un producto verdaderamente de nivel profesional y ha creado su propio sello, no hay absolutamente ninguna manera de la mayoría de los lectores pensará que es auto-pubbed. Porque cuando la gente piensa acerca de la auto-pubbed drek, están pensando en las cubiertas de mierda y mierda de edición. Y si la cubierta se ve bien, y la muestra se lee en su dispositivo se ve bien, dudo mucho que se cruzan sus mentes a cavar lo suficientemente profundo para averiguar si se trata de auto-publicación.
Es fácil olvidar que el lector medio que no es de ninguna manera involucrado en los círculos editoriales tiene una forma abreviada mucho más de la determinación de "auto-publicado una mierda" que no saben que todas las editoriales pequeñas son o lo que es cada huella, o incluso, que el editor es de la mayor parte de sus autores favoritos.
Zoe, et al:
Estamos hablando de dos funciones diferentes, pero complementarias. Uno de ellos es la calidad, es un reconocimiento de marca.
Esa función gatekeeping es importante - sino un modelo editorial tradicional no es la única manera (o tal vez ni siquiera la mejor manera) para hacerlo. Todos hemos leído drek que se puso por un editor profesional. Todos hemos escuchado que los editores no siempre aceptan y rechazan la EM, basado en la calidad solo. Dicho esto, tienes razón, una vez que alguien encuentra una marca de confianza que se necesita esfuerzo para ir más allá de ella.
Muestreo - como Zoe mencionado - se puede superar esto. Lo vemos todo el tiempo en las tiendas de comestibles. Que lo pruebes, te gusta, se obtiene más. (Caramba, mira Free Comic Book Day, como otro ejemplo.)
Creo que el mercado es mucho más caótica de lo que cualquiera de los modelos. ¿Cómo esta rebanada (creciente) de la torta se divide a cabo, y si (y cómo) la posición de los propios editores hacen una gran diferencia en sus líneas de fondo.
Creo que una parte muy grande de Smashwords no ser un mercado tan grande para muchos indies es justo lo que dijo sobre el tiempo de carga del sitio. Es simplemente demasiado lento. Y que convierte a los consumidores que de otra manera han comprado allí.
La verdadera belleza de Smashwords, sin embargo, su distribución es la prima que recibe un indie en muchos otros puntos de venta como Sony, iBookstore, Kobo, y B & N (hasta pubit llega, la mayoría en ese momento va a distribuir directamente a través de B & N)
JA Konrath dice: "5000 libros electrónicos de un año que usted gana $ 10.000. Pero el próximo año, usted tiene el potencial para vender aún más, ya que el libro electrónico se vuelve más popular. "
¿Quiere decir que el formato, o el libro en particular de su ejemplo?
De cualquier manera, creo que esta es una lógica defectuosa. Ciertamente, el formato e-book tiene una cola más larga, pero ¿por qué la gente compra un libro que es dos o tres años frente a la avalancha de nuevos libros de auto-publicados que va a venir, como lo es ahora tan fácil para nosotros que hacer? Sí, si lo haces bien, la gente va a comprar su fondo editorial, pero no en números cada vez mayores.
Una de las cosas, la OMI falta en esta discusión es el tema de la calidad. Uno mismo-publicar a menudo (no siempre, por supuesto) es sinónimo de calidad muy pobre. ¿Cuántas veces un lector de quemarse antes de empezar a averiguar si un libro es auto-publicación y la decisión de no correr el riesgo? Edición, la comercialización, y la portada están siendo desechado de plano muy corto.
También falta la mención de los últimos 15 años del revolucionario realizado por e-editores. No se trata sólo "de impresión o por cuenta propia publicación." Hay otras opciones!
Estoy de acuerdo que no se trata sólo de impresión o de auto-publicación, y he alentado autores independientes antes de buscar una pequeña imprenta o EPUB porque al ser independiente no era algo que realmente "quería" hacer. Se acababa de comprar en esta idea de que todo su trabajo será "destruido" por un editor. Soy un fanático de control y debe tener el control creativo, pero eso es compensado por el hecho de que realmente me gusta mucho la auto-publicación. El acto de ella. Y para algunas personas, que no puede ser el caso.
Sin embargo, cuando se trata de epubs ... Sé que los más grandes de mi género son la Cueva de Ellora y Samhain, y luego se suelta ID mencionado mucho también. Todos los editores buenos para eso. Pero me estoy haciendo más por mi cuenta que muchos de los autores de identificación de Samhain y suelta (no estoy seguro acerca de la AE porque yo no sé mucho acerca de lo que la media de la CE, autor hace ahora, pero sé que Samhain y la identificación de varios sueltos los autores.)
Así que para mí no tendría mucho sentido para ir después de una publicación electrónica. Pero, a pesar de que son indies a muchos que venden mucho más que yo, hay muchos que las Indias vender mucho menos que yo. Y no es todo acerca de los precios. He visto los libros con tapas independientes decentes vendiendo a 99 centavos que fueron clasificados más de 100.000 en la tienda de Kindle. Lo que significa que están vendiendo una copia o dos cada semana o dos más probable.
Una publicación electrónica es definitivamente algo a las personas a considerar y estudiar, pero ... si alguien puede comercializar y conseguir su nombre hacia fuera allí, y cuidar de las facetas de la auto-publicación de la OMI, que están mejor indie, tanto para el creador / personal recompensas, y el dinero.
Permítanme darles la perspectiva de uno de los pequeños Jim papas fritas está preocupado por (sí, ese soy yo). Soy autor de pequeña trabajando duro para irrumpir en la escena. Aunque he tenido algún éxito en la aceptación, esto hasta ahora ha sido con organizaciones no-editores que pagan por adelantado. Tengo derechos en la delantera y aún así, yo no voy a dejar mi trabajo diario en el corto plazo!
Sé lo mucho que trabajan mis editores ponen en la comercialización de mi libro porque yo hago mi negocio para saber. Con las prensas pequeñas y epublishers, los autores trabajan en concierto con sus editores en el mercado. Aun así, sé que yo no podía hacer el tipo de ventas Konrath está reclamando, no por mi cuenta.
Dicen que la mejor estrategia de marketing es tener fondo editorial. Pero ¿cuál es el punto de tener un fondo editorial de libros si no se sabe quién es usted? Mi única gracia salvadora en la puesta en marcha es que mi editor está allí junto a mí. A través de ellos, tengo oportunidades de promoción con los autores de compañeros que sólo se abren a otros en la misma casa editorial. Por no hablar de que tengo una mejor oportunidad de tener mi libro reseñado en los sitios de bloggers. Ya las puertas, que he visto cerrado para mí, simplemente porque algunos críticos todavía no han unido a la comunidad ereader. Como ya he hecho mi investigación, he notado aún más puertas están cerradas a la libre libros publicados. Tal vez se trata de una estipulación de que debe ser corregido, pero el hecho es que hoy he navegado 50 + ya los blogs de revisión y sólo uno (1) fue abierto a la revisión de los libros de auto-publicados. Si nadie va a revisar los libros de auto-publicados, ¿cómo es el autor para obtener voz de que su libro está disponible? Las oportunidades de los clientes de blogs y entrevistas del autor es probable que se prohibió a ellas en los mismos sitios. Sin comentarios (bueno o malo), yo recurriría a sacar anuncios en los sitios populares (como los sitios de revisión, etc.) Para un autor de publicación propia, esto es dinero que sale de su bolsillo, dinero que no puede permitirse el lujo de gastar cuando su ingreso es tan incierto. Publicación en libro electrónico, haciendo firmas locales de libros, etc, no sería plausible, y el merchandising (marcadores, etc) para los ebooks es un poco ridículo, en mi opinión.
Pero permítanme retroceder un paso más allá. Tengo conocimientos en el campo editorial que yo no habría conocido un año antes. Si el yo de hace un año se va a auto-publicación, habría sido un desastre. No sólo he tenido los conocimientos necesarios para promocionar mis obras (el conocimiento que he obtenido a través de la guía paciente de mis editores, y con la ayuda de amigos), pero me hubiera publicado algo que no habría estado listo para el mercado. La contratación de un editor no le garantiza un buen libro. Hay graves errores que pudiera haber hecho en esa historia que estaba tan orgulloso de que no podía ver sus defectos. He leído los libros de auto-publicadas antes, y voy a ser honesto con usted. Si bien hay joyas, también hay libros horribles por ahí! Si hay una falla en el argumento de que no puedo ver o que son demasiado ciegos para escuchar a los editores cuando me dicen, y sigo adelante y auto-publicar? Ninguna cantidad de la gramática y la sintaxis perfecta será capaz de cubrir eso. Cualquier lector que lee ese libro se quedará con la duda en mí como autor, le dirá a sus amigos para que me evitar (si se acuerda de mí en absoluto) y evitar futuras obras que podría producir. Fondo editorial, no me estaría ahorrando allí!
Hablando con un autor reconocido (o, mejor aún, un éxito de ventas!) Sobre la publicación de uno mismo es una historia totalmente diferente a la mayoría de los autores que siguen el mercado de auto-publicación. Estoy de acuerdo con Jim que su caso es extremo. Es el sueño que le dice a la gente lo puede hacer. Pero no es probable. Heck, es tan probable como mi primer libro golpear las listas de ventas! Buscando la construcción de un público poco a poco con un editor establecido (o tres) es mucho más realista que la auto-publicación que el polvo de piedra recogida en el cajón y esperar a ganarse la vida fuera de ella.
Soy un gran defensor de la edición digital con un editor de confianza. Hablo de ello todo el tiempo, abogar por ella, he participado en talleres y se han escrito sobre ella también. Me encanta la edición digital. Pero la publicación digital no es la publicación de uno mismo, como no todos los animales son los perros.
Vendo un infierno de mucho más el de 5.000 libros digitales al año y todavía no está dispuesto a publicar yo, ni creo que sea viable para el 90% de los autores. Puedo publicar con grandes editoriales y pequeños editores NY primeros digitales y no estoy de acuerdo con la afirmación de que el autor es "mejor" que la elección de auto publicación de la edición tradicional en ausencia de un gran negocio.
I * hacer * hacer más dinero de mis libros digitales que libros impresos, lo cual es debido principalmente a las tasas de regalías más altas para los libros digitales - pero mis editores de hacer el trabajo pesado. Levantar objetos pesados que no tengo ningún deseo de hacer yo mismo. (Aunque esto no quiere decir que no tiene que promover. Todos lo hacemos.)
Más importante aún, no creo que tendría la misma exposición sin el peso de una editorial detrás de mí. Estar con un editor es un factor enorme en por qué mi nombre es conocido en mi pequeño rincón del género.
No, no me inventan. No me hacen. No escribo mis libros ni nada de eso. Pero me promover. Ellos me dan buenas tapas y comercializar mis libros. Los lectores a su sitio web y la página de Facebook, su cuenta de twitter. Ellos tienen más presencia que yo, más dinero, más atención y más poder. Si ellos usan eso y si * I * se puede usar eso para llamar la atención por mi trabajo, esto no tiene precio.
La gente quiere pasar por alto que, ya que hace todo el rah-rah pon tu libro en el Kindle a ti mismo y hacer un argumento de tropecientos dólares más fácil de digerir cuando no se centran en todos los factores que entran a un autor que él o ella tiene suficiente cantidad de una la base para realmente hacer un ir de la auto-publicación.
Ya sea que un autor decide publicar uno mismo o no, no es asunto mío. Hay, sin lugar a dudas, historias de éxito como Konrath. Pero prefiero que nos fijamos en * todos * los factores en que hablar de ello - los hechos demuestran que la realidad será la inmensa mayoría de los que van esta ruta no se encuentra el éxito que * creo * que lo harán.
Desde una perspectiva financiera no, espero que nunca muere ... imprimir los libros no se rompen cuando se los pone en su bolsillo y se sienta en ellos, que no requieren baterías, y que no se sobrecaliente y causar un incendio si se queda dormido con ellos en su cama. Viva la impresión!
"Luego nos trasladamos a los lectores electrónicos, que son bastante caros (por lo menos son 150 dólares más el costo de los libros). Ellos son el peso más ligero, portátil y tiene una duración de la batería increíble, pero no hay color (lo que no hay libros de historietas, no hay libros de imágenes, e incluso los libros para niños) y los límites en los formatos y lo que el trabajo en cada e-reader. Tampoco hay disponibilidad completa todavía. Hay algunas limitaciones importantes con este formato ".
Piense en el futuro. These problems will go away over time. The tipping point has been reached, and with the big boys (Amazon, Apple, B&N, Borders) jumping into the fray, it won't be long at all before all of the above will be fixed. And Kindle will probably be around $99 just in time for Christmas.
While I agree with Angela about publisher branding becoming even more important - readers DO want a reliable and trustworthy source for books and this will be ever-more important in a world where self-pubbing is so available and popular - I also think Amazon's ratings/reviews are going to serve as the gatekeepers on that end. Some are shill reviews, yeah - but you can usually spot them. If people like a book, they're going to say so. If enough people like it, and it sounds good, other folks are going to buy it. If people find egregious errors and horrible writing, they're going to say so. And people won't buy it. The cream will still rise to the top. Or at least the popular stuff will still rise to the top
Yes, thinking ahead is important. Like how you'll read those ebooks in another decade. Will the readers then have the same standards as the ones now have? Will they be backward compatible? And what about 2 decades from now? Since we all like to compare this transfer to the digital music revolution, I'll remind everybody that 2 decades ago having a CD on your computer that could play music CDs was a nifty idea. And that people still have music-on-vinyl collections, reel-to-reel tapes, cassettes, audio digital tape, etc. How well can you purchase equipment to play some of those standards? As we move to accept a display device that creates an abstraction layer between us and the content, those questions become more important (and if you don't think it is, research the Library of Congress and the effort they're going through to continually update their legacy data standards, it's a huge problem).
I can speak for at least the ePUB format, I think there will be programs for a long while that will be able to handle it, since it is basically glorified HTML in a zip file with an index file. So, as long as we have the web (reasonable if), I think the ePUB will handle it.
Now, DRM… I doubt that will be around in 2, 20, 200 years. If anything, the servers that need to authorize use will eventually be shutdown.
But, the file format itself, I think has reasonable long-term viability.
Eso tiene sentido para mí. DRM killed a legit music file within a year for me, whereas I can still open up old Word Perfect files from 12 years ago. So I can see the file formats outliving the DRM.
But longer term, there are files that are so old it's hard for me to open them. So how easy will it be to read today's ePUB file in 20 years? I don't know — it's one reason I wish we'd get a single standard e-book format, one which could better build backward-compatibility into future releases.
(Yeah, I won't buy DRM stuff. Even if I really want it. .. well, except for DVD's.)
En realidad no he encontrado un "abierto" que no podía abrirse años más tarde. Incluso cuando dragado mi libro original de la poesía (Microsoft Office 4), que tenía más problemas para encontrar una manera de conseguir que fuera el disco de abrir el archivo. OpenOffice.org es manejado como fácilmente. Sin embargo, que no era que hace muchos años.
Creo que el problema vendrá en los medios, no formatos. Obtener algo fuera de un 7 "disco va a ser más difícil de averiguar el formato de archivo del archivo.
Yo lo considero el ePub a ser bastante compatibles. Pero, también hago la suposición de que los archivos XML y Zip se va a estar alrededor durante mucho tiempo.
Considerando HTML es inferior a 2 años de edad y de haber visto las circunvoluciones de la norma, no tengo fe, como mucho de lo que va a ser todo en las próximas décadas. Después de todo, XML se suponía que debía matar a HTML hace una década. Y CSS todavía no se implementa correctamente con todos los navegadores. Por no hablar de todas las normas de HTML3 que han desaprobado desde el 4 llegó sin embargo, hace muchos años.
O, para decirlo de otro modo, recuerdo que cuando Marcos estaban de moda. Apenas los veo más.
Sí, estoy realmente muy triste que XHTML no realmente conseguir masa crítica suficiente para ser el estándar único y verdadero. Pero, de nuevo, soy un programador y como mis etiquetas a mayúsculas y minúsculas y cerrado.
Mientras voy de acuerdo en que HTML no puede ser el formato de presentación de la elección en 30 años, creo que siempre habrá un convertidor que se llevará a HTML 1, 2, 4, 12 y convertirlo en lo que es la forma actual. Algo así como la forma de calibre será convertir los formatos de libros electrónicos, habrá un programa que se llevará a la "vieja quebrada de HTML 5" (texto, HTML, XML, bob) y convertirlo en el "calor de la nueva AwesomeFileFormat" del futuro.
Mientras no pierda el archivo, incluso décadas más tarde, todavía será capaz de romper abrirlo, sacar las palabras bonitas, y mermelada de ellos en el actual "mejor" en formato.
Bueno, no estoy recibiendo ofertas importantes, pero estoy mucho mejor que la media en esa encuesta, además de mi venta a través de es excelente, así que estoy recibiendo las regalías buenas, también.
Estoy de acuerdo con Lauren en el que la auto-publicación no es el mágico encanto. Dorchester no es necesariamente un signo de lo inevitable por venir. Otras editoriales tienen que responder, pero Dorchester había estado sufriendo de problemas financieros por un tiempo largo. Esta es la desesperación, no la innovación. La mayoría de los autores será mejor con un editor digital de buena reputación, a menos que sean muy técnico y conocimientos de marketing.
Corto y dulce:
publicado, uno mismo-publicado e híbridos (supongo) - todas las obras de no ficción sobre un tema de especialidad. Recibido pago una tarifa plana para el libro tradicional, hizo un montón en la auto-publicación (antes de la electrónica de cosas - un costo de $ 2.80, precio de tapa - $ 24.95, el libro no está disponible, pero todavía en la demanda), se vende por 1500 copias del "híbrido" ( encontró una pequeña imprenta interesado, nos separamos algunas de las tareas); varios cientos de estos ejemplares encontrado su camino hacia el Boy Scout Jamboree 100, hizo una vuelta decente.
Odio ebooks, nunca será un "converso" (me gusta haber perdido un cuarto de los libros, tener que comprar estantes para libros y tener que transportar alrededor cuando me muevo. Si no lo haces eres un traidor, jajaja)
Realmente no les gusta el concepto de auto-pubbed ficción. (No-ficción que puede entender y han participado y que es una bestia diferente); demasiada pendiente, mierda poco profesional que vadear a través de que he conectado el estigma a todos y ni siquiera perder un dólar "probarlo" .
Pero aquí está mi granada de mano arrojada a la ensalada: ¿qué pasaría si los editores tradicionales, finalmente ceder y darse cuenta de que puede ganar más dinero, simplemente la licencia de su pie de imprenta (o "una" impresión de aspirantes auto-pubbers Me parece que si la electrónica y la auto-publicación son la grave amenaza para la tradicional que algunos parecen pensar que es, lo anterior es una forma potencialmente viable y lucrativo para los tradicionalistas para mantenerse en el negocio.
(Algunos pubbers Self-ya están haciendo algo como esto con los sitios web, la publicación de "Compañía" nombres y etc, tales como el tipo que está pasando en torno a lo que permite a la gente a pensar que es el artista ahora Eggleton Bob el autor.)
Sólo speculatin ...
@ David (volver a la "granada de mano en la ensalada", que es una imagen maravillosa!): En última instancia, la calidad va a condenar (o no) a los editores. Hay una gran diferencia entre simplemente ofrecer licencias de pie de imprenta para la venta y la descalificación a los que quieren comprar el pie de imprenta.
En realidad, creo que la última no es una idea horrible - salvo que se viola la Ley de Yog. Si se trata de puntos de red para la impresión, de que iba a estar bien.
Funcionaría así: me acerco, por ejemplo, Tor (debido a que su nombre es corto y estoy en mi hora de almuerzo!) Para obtener su huella en mi novela auto-publicación. A ellos les encanta, creo que encaja con el trabajo que han "impreso". Lo vendo, y obtener un porcentaje de corte de la publicidad / pie de imprenta. Mi amigo Bob, escribió una historia de mierda que es Heinlein con los nombres de llenados, y ellos lo rechazan porque no quieren ser asociados con la basura.
Eso resuelve tanto conseguir el libro en frente de una audiencia y el "guardián" problema de calidad.
Definitivamente, he visto propuestas crappier.
Konrath ha demostrado lo que es posible con la auto-publicación. Tiene experiencia con él, él es muy inteligente al respecto, y que ha hecho mucho trabajo de campo previo a la misma. Fue publicada en la prensa antes de hacerlo. Nuevos autores, el 99% de ellos de todos modos, nada de esto. Creo que hay una curva de aprendizaje bastante grande para hacer la auto-publicación el trabajo bien. Se necesita una gran inversión en tiempo, esfuerzo y algo de dinero. La mayoría de los que buscan a publicar no están dispuestos o son incapaces de hacer esto, por lo que creo que la auto-publicación, probablemente no tendrá éxito para la mayoría de los que tratan. Es realmente desea entrar en el negocio por sí mismo, que no es lo que la mayoría de los escritores que no tienen una gran cantidad de conocimiento acerca de la industria quiere oír.
I'm getting published in print. I believe it ups my odds of establishing a name for myself for more than self-publishing, even if I don't stand to earn a great deal of money. If, at some point, I've written several books and continue to sell and have a following, I might likely look into self-publishing some material. As it stands now however, I much prefer the ability to keep writing and leave the bulk of the other issues to a publisher. The money trade-off is more than worth it.
JA Konrath says: “5000 ebooks a year would earn you $10,000. But next year, you have the potential to sell even more, as the ebook becomes more popular.”
Do you mean the format, or the particular book of your example?
By all estimates, ebooks are 5% to 10% of the current bookselling market. But this number will go up. As a result, I've seen sales on all of my titles steadily increase, as more and more people buy ereading devices.
Either way, I think this is faulty logic. Certainly, the e-book format has a longer tail, but why would people buy a book that is two or three years old as opposed to the flood of new self-published books that will be coming, as it is now so easy for us to do? Yes, if you do well, people will buy your backlist, but not in ever-increasing numbers.
Publishers stay in business because of backlists, not frontlists or bestsellers (many of which lose money.)
A strong backlist sells year after year. In the case of ebooks, every book is new if you've recently bought a new Kindle. Which is why I've had books in the top 1000 bestsellers for 16 months.
Now I'm curious — how easy is it to do foreign sales of self-published titles?
My agent sold audio rights to my self-pubbed titles. She's working on foreign rights.
the LCD strains your eyes and neither are very light weight nor portable
E-ink has zero eye strain. And the new Kindle weighs less than a paperback and is only $139.
“By all estimates, ebooks are 5% to 10% of the current bookselling market.”
I believe you meant “by some estimates” there. There's a link in the original post to a NYT article guessing 3-5%. Here's another estimate putting it at 1-3%. The New Yorker puts it at 3-5%.
Can you back up your 5-10% claim?
E-ink has zero eye strain
Point of order, e-ink has a similar eye strain as ink on paper. So if you want to say the differences between the old tech and the new are negligible, sure. To say it's “zero” is misleading. Most people don't notice the strain as fast as they notice it with backlit devices, however it does strain the eyes. Reading, in any format, is not what our eyes evolved to do.
Can you back up your 5-10% claim?
¿Por qué? A quién le importa?
If it's even smaller than 5-10%, that gives it even more room to grow. Which means even greater future sales.
I care about whether or not I can view you as a credible source of information. If you exagerate your claims and cannot or will not back them up, then the answer is no. That's helpful to know.
I care about whether or not I can view you as a credible source of information. If you exagerate your claims and cannot or will not back them up, then the answer is no. That's helpful to know.
If you don't think I'm credible, read my blog more carefully.
The real percentage number is immaterial to my argument, which is that THE EBOOK MARKET HAS A LOT OF ROOM TO GROW.
If it makes you feel better, I'll change the statement to: “I haven't seen a single estimate that states the ebook market is more than 10% of the entire bookselling market.”
You claiming it is much less than that number speaks to my point, not against it.
I have read your blog, which is one of the reasons I question you as a source of good or reliable information, in part for the reasons noted in the original post.
Your 5-10% quote above was an inaccurate statement on your part, which is why I challenged it.
You're correct that both my numbers and yours support the larger argument you're making. It's an argument I agree with, actually. I don't think there's any question that e-books will grow and become a larger share of the market.
However, you might consider that your arguments would be stronger if you were less careless about the numbers you toss about, both uncited statistics and made-up hypotheticals.
Adscrito. Sloppy arguments mean that it's difficult for me to argue my (somewhat advocacy) point as well. It wasn't difficult to find a source for a 3-5% market share for eBooks .
More quotes:
http://www.davidderrico.com/may-2010-e-book-sales-29-3m/
According to this, ebooks are 8.48%.
You might consider that your arguments would be stronger if you were less careless about the numbers you toss about, and searched for more accurate, up to date statistics.
Konrath, this is getting a little sad. You said “all” estimates fell into your quoted range. It took me two minutes on Google to disprove that.
I never claimed the numbers I tossed back were the only ones, or even that they were the best. I was only pointing out your sloppiness in claiming all estimates fell into the same range.
If you feel that finding a May quote to trump my Feb-April citations gives you some sort of win here, well, whatever keeps your ego happy, I guess.
My other post disappeared, so please delete this one if if comes back.
Your 5-10% quote above was an inaccurate statement on your part, which is why I challenged it.
Seconded. Sloppy arguments mean that it's difficult for me to argue my (somewhat advocacy) point as well. It wasn't difficult to find a source for a 3-5% market share for eBooks.
Ok, you want to play? We can play the stats game. You two can go first, because the three stats you quoted are waaaaaay out of date. Show me a stat within the last few months. Things have changed a lot since Feb, March, and April, which were the links you posted.
While you look for recent figures, here is one:
The Association of American Publishers' latest data reports that e-book sales grew 163 percent in the month of May.
Over the past month (May), for every 100 hardcover books Amazon.com has sold, it has sold 180 Kindle books.
You were so quick to pounce on me. You should have done some more Googling.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6700Z620100801
Random House is at 8% and predicts mroe than 10% soon. Which was where–if memory serves–I got the 10% number I quoted.
But STILL none of this does anything to refute my original point.
Your other comment went into Wordpress' automatic moderation queue. I just got back online, so haven't had a chance to do anything with it. However, since you used that comment to reply to people over in LiveJournal, I'm gonna leave it in moderation. If you want to respond to folks in LJ, do it there.
[ETA: Ah, and I see that you have. Cool, and thank you!]
Like I said above, the three stats I gave were a result of 2 minutes on Google to disprove your claim that all estimates showed the same thing. If you feel my Feb-April stats are “waaaaaay out of date,” whereas your May stats are wonderfully shiny, then dude, whatever makes you happy.
“But STILL none of this does anything to refute my original point.”
Never claimed it did. See my comment where I say I agree with that particular point. I wasn't trying to refute your point; I was simply challenging you out on sloppy wording and/or careless number-flinging.
I'll also note that somewhere in the mainstream press and/or on other publishing related blogs, the Amazon data comparing e-book sales to real book sales have been largely denounced as self-serving and marketing hype. I believe, if I remember correctly, that the question asked as “ahhh, but to what set of real book sales - new releases, hardbacks, etc.) If I can find the link, I'll add it in here, but I'm sure someone involved in the discussion has probably already found it.
Actually, Mr. Konrath, I am - or was - kind of on your side. I have a few self-published works on Amazon, and just spent a large part of the last weekend talking about how publishing has to change.
As some others might know, I've also pointed out the large growth in the eBook market before now.
I think we're well past the first-mover stage, and are on the brink of mass adoption. I'm cautiously bullish on the economics of eBooks ( here and here , for example).
I can't find the particular stat at the minute, but I believe it was Penguin that expected digital products to be over 10% of its sales by the end of 2010. But see, here's the difference - I just pointed out that I don't remember the particular statistic. Eso es todo. I'm not citing it as an absolute fact - just as a half-remembered article.
Since both Jim & I have said that we actually agree with large portions of your argument, I'm staggered that you find it necessary to treat us as enemies.
You might also want to read Mike Stackpole's dissection of the “Kindles outsell Hardcovers” story . Do read the whole thing - he both shows why the headline's pointless, but how the fact the headline exists is extremely important.
Konrath, this is getting a little sad. You said “all” estimates fell into your quoted range. It took me two minutes on Google to disprove that.
With out of date figures. And then you jumped on me for being incorrect, when you were incorrect.
I never claimed the numbers I tossed back were the only ones, or even that they were the best. I was only pointing out your sloppiness in claiming all estimates fell into the same range.
So I was being sloppy, but you weren't?
If you feel that finding a May quote to trump my Feb-April citations gives you some sort of win here, well, whatever keeps your ego happy, I guess.
This isn't about winning an internet debate. It's about the ebook market literally growing month-to-month. If we haven't hit 10% yet, we will soon. But writers still keep signing with publishers. They still think the old model works. No tiene ningún sentido para mí. You seem to think it still makes sense.
Can everyone do what I'm doing? No. But I never said they could.
I have said that writers need to think, long and hard, about the future of this industry. They need to pay attention to their contracts. They need to set goals and do the math when it comes to advances. We've been trained to take whatever scraps we've been offered, and be grateful for them. We even defend those giving us the scraps.
The industry is changing. I believe our mentality should change with it. I also believe playing the “who has better stats” game is a big waste of time, obscuring the main point: ebooks will only get bigger.
Speak to that topic, not my use of the word “all.”
“With out of date figures. And then you jumped on me for being incorrect, when you were incorrect.”
Yes … my April figures were, in your words, “waaaay out of date.” If only I could have found current numbers like you did, from May.
¿En serio?
“They still think the old model works. No tiene ningún sentido para mí. You seem to think it still makes sense.”
It makes sense for me. I make between $25K and $50K a year from my writing. I recognize that you make more, and that's great. I think it's awesome that you've been able to succeed with your writing. I also believe that, given the choice between signing with a major publisher and trying to imitate your path, most people are going to be far more successful with the former choice. Not all, but most.
“The industry is changing. I believe our mentality should change with it.”
Estoy de acuerdo contigo. But I also think if you want to continue being a prophet of the New Publishing, you need to stop being sloppy with your claims.
I'm staggered that you find it necessary to treat us as enemies.
If you want to argue against my points or opinions, fine.
If you want to devolve an argument to a degree of percentages that aren'ta necessary part of the argument, I think it's silly. Especially when I'm getting called on incorrect stats that currently seem correct.
There are a lot of folks who really, deeply, truly resent me and what I'm doing. If I overreacted, it's knee-jerk, and I apologize. I seem to be defending myself a lot lately. Which is odd, when you consider my intent.
A mish-mash of thoughts on this topic:
I believe publishing is in upheaval that will lead to tremendous change. I believe e-books will continue to grow and grow and grow, ad infinitum. I believe self-publishing, as easy an inexpensive as it now is, has become a suddenly more viable and positive option for authors, and I intend to try it, just to see how it goes. Making a little money is better than making none.
But it's odd. Every so often in these discussions, someone makes a statement that implies that e-publishing is new, just because of the recent onslaught of e-book readers. Some of us, in fact, have been published in e-book format since 1997 (2000 in my particular case) or even earlier. The “revolution is here!” cry has been heard constantly for 13 years. E-book sales have increased from .1% of total revenues to 2/3/10/12/whatever percent (depending on what kinds of books are being measured and by whom, which of course makes the actual percentage meaningless). Hardly enough to justify calling it revolution.
E-books are not new. There are innovations in the market that will help boost e-book sales, hopefully significantly, but there is no reason to believe that print books will disappear (most e-publishers also publish the majority of their books in print, too) or that self-publishing will take over the entire industry in a sudden wave. I expect a far more complicated result.
What I believe will happen is far closer to what is happening to the television industry than the music industry, as a comparison. Some people watch TV live, some DVR it, some watch online at the network website or another website, some download to iTunes. Similarly, some people love e-books, some love print, and some are hybrids and love both. Coexistence and variety are the present and the future, not wholesale change from one thing to another. And I think that's excellent.
Other people call me a prophet. Yo nunca dije que era.
But I have been pretty on target predicting the last 18 months.
Ignore it at your peril.
Well, to paraphrase every mutual fund investment brochure out there, one quarter does not a trend make.
So, lets see. In 1 quarter we go from 3-4 to 8-10 percent. I wonder what happened in that quarter? Like maybe the introduction of a major player's device with pent-up demand that sold some 4 million units which also cause the existing front leader to slash prices, which also met demand (I'm assuming since said company doesn't release sales numbers for their device).
So, 4 million plus new devices on the market that can behave as ebook readers. I wonder what all those people did with their new devices?
I can't take credit for this idea. It was thrown out by a Big Name Editor for one of those dead tree publications at a panel I attended last month. So, you know, they might be biased.
It'll be interesting to see where the numbers are in 4Qtr CY 2010 (ie. Christmas shopping season). 1Qtr CY2011 should also be a good quarter for ebooks, as everybody who got readers for the holiday's buy their experimental books for their new devices.
And frankly, from a few percentage points the numbers could only go up, or the format dies. Those were the only two options. So the major questions are where will the market settle (10 years after the “digital download revolution” on music, 60% of unit sales are still physical media), and will that number be high enough to make the industry (it may be a cottage industry, but it's still an industry) profitable.
I've been studying e-book sales and trends for a while now, and have been blogging about them as well (Mr. Konrath posted a link to one of my posts). He is correct that e-books currently account for 8-10% of book sales. Those 3% numbers weren't from April — they were posted in April but were 2009 numbers. Since e-book sales are doubling and tripling each year, last year's stats are an eternity old. Hachette and Simon & Schuster both said e-books were 8% of their Q1, 2010 revenue. Several major publishers have confirmed these numbers, and have said they expect e-books to account for 10% of their 2010 sales.
http://www.davidderrico.com/tag/sales/
As for Apple, they're not making as big an impact on e-book sales as you might think. In fact, they're a negligible portion of e-book sales: probably between 1% and 5%. Amazon is still the dominant player, with 70-80% of e-book sales. And it's not all people reading on iPads: 80% of Amazon's sales are to people who own Kindles.
http://www.davidderrico.com/e-book-market-share-amazon-at-75/
One other point, Konrath's sales are certainly the high end of the bell curve. But I'ma nobody, with no previous NY publishing pedigree. And I sold over 6,000 e-books in the first 6 months of this year. I'm not making it rich, but I'll do better than that $5,000 average NY advance figure this year. And, since most people agree that e-books will continue to increase their market share, hopefully 2011 will look even brighter.
Of course, it's far from easy, and I've worked very hard on my novels and the editing and proofreading and e-book formatting and the covers and blogging and more. I'm sure most self-published novels don't do very well at all. And while I'm probably doing better than most, it's still worse than minimum wage. =)
Hola David,
Amazon definitely still seems to be leading the pack in electronic sales, though I'd take some of their claims with a grain of salt.
Congratulations on the success of your book! Eso es impresionante. It definitely sounds like you've done a lot of work, and it's paying off. Any thoughts on the most important things you've done to earn that success?
Sure, Amazon used some clever wording and is pretty secretive when it comes to hardware sales — I'm sure they have their reasons (some say it's to catch other companies flat-footed, like when B&N ran out of Nook stock over the holidays). But they've given some pretty firm numbers on e-book market share, and by parsing all the data (including Apple's misleading statements on “downloads” that probably include freebies), I'm pretty confident that Amazon's share is in the 70-80% range.
¡Gracias! I have put in a lot of work; I hope nobody hits that “Publish” button thinking it's a path to easy or sure riches — it is definitely neither. But (getting back to the point of your post), the traditional publishing route is neither easy nor likely to be financially lucrative either. Even most trad-pubbed authors have day jobs. But, today, going it alone makes more sense for more people than ever before — although it's still not for everyone: you need to be willing to work hard, take risks, and either have the skill and time to do lots of disparate jobs yourself (cover design, editing/proofreading, formatting, web design/blogging, promotion, etc.), or be willing to pay others out of your own pocket to help. But Konrath and others are proving it IS a legitimate option, something to at least consider alongside the traditional publishing route. And I think most would agree that the self-publishing option looks better and better over time, as e-book market share increases and traditional publishers are in more and more financial trouble. Bottom line: big publishers have huge advantages in the print world (economies of scale, distribution, etc.), but those advantages often turn into disadvantages in the e-book world, as their overhead and reliance on print cause them to resist e-books, overprice, delay releases, block TTS, embrace invasive DRM, etc. And their distribution advantage is mostly nullified when my e-books are available worldwide on the virtual shelves of Amazon, B&N, Apple, Kobo, and Sony.
To answer your last question: I think the most important factors to earning success as a writer are to write a good book, edit and proofread it fanatically, design a good cover and write a good description, do your research (on writing, formatting, promotion, and the business end of publishing), and spend time becoming a member (not just a spammer) of various online communities.
I guess I don't understand the all-or-nothing philosophy that so many seem to have with regards to paper vs. plastic
I am an avid reader, and have been for years. I initially thought I'd “never” be interested in one of the new e-readers - until I got my hands on one. Then I realized how incredible it was to not need to fill my suitcase with books instead of clothes for the times I wasn't sure what I might want to read next.
Anyway, I have a Kindle. But just because I enjoy using my Kindle DOES NOT mean that I am no longer purchasing “regular” books now either! I still purchase paper books - primarily in a few categories: books for my children, books that I *know* are meaningful to me for one reason or another, or books for a collection. As an example, I am currently collecting the Powell's Indiespensible books that come out every couple of months…and yes, I read them.
To me, there is too much talk of one *over* the other, rather than how they can work together to complement each other. Unfortunately, the publishers have had a large part to play in this. Like many, I am fuming over the Publisher's Model they have implemented, and will refuse to pay over $10 for any book. It goes on a wish-list until the price goes down, or I buy a used copy to avoid giving the publisher my money for their highway robbery.
Are publishers hurting themselves and their customers (and, by extension, their authors)? Por supuesto. Are they still a valuable part of publishing, provided they can get their heads out of their butts? Por supuesto. I look forward to a day when the talk is no longer why one is better and needs to take over, but how they can complement each other in so many different ways and how they can be used to take advantage of that.
beth, it's easy to understand the “all or nothing” position.
I've had a chance to check out ebook readers and they do nothing for me. I have no problems packing an extra suitcase to carry them on trips. In fact, I usually bring an extra carry bag ON the trip to fill up with books I find while traveling.
I spend ALL DAY in front of the computer, reading, writing and editing. I do not watch TV (unless forced to do so) and I consider it to mark the end of my 'day' when I can lie down and read a real book, feel the paper between my fingers, enjoy the heft - even enjoy waking up because I just dropped it on my face.
I do not ever expect to stem the tide, but to me, the switch over is another symptom of the “enabling” electronic society we are living in. The real world ended when they put a picture of fries on the cash register at McDonalds so that folks who can't read could still work there.
The same goes for self-publishing (whether you are successful monetarily at it or not): “enabling” where it is a substitute for hard work, patience and sacrifice is yet another way that we lower the common denominator, approaching the point where the only thing that will sell is “crap”, because the market has become conditioned and the only thing anyone will invest money in is “crap” that is guaranteed to sell.
Some things SHOULD be hard, and art is one of them. (We'll never see a movie like Casablanca in the theaters again - films that make you think and work to follow a story just don't appeal to mindless audiences - instead we get blockbusters like 'Dumb and Dumber' that celebrate! stupidity.)
Clearly, this is not MY world any more.
Steve, I respectfully disagree. I do not believe that allowing people to self-publish is going to “lower the common denominator”. I believe that crap is published by traditional authors as well - and that traditional publishers, in many ways, look for what is going to sell rather that what might truly be a great story. You're just as likely to get crap on both sides of the aisle, not just self-publishing. I also believe that the “crap” you refer to will be read by some, but will be just as likely to be outed as such by others, allowing people who are truly looking for a terrific story to find it - regardless of how it was published.
Because the argument isn't about “the reader.” The argument is about “Traditional Publishing Is Dead!” That leads to the “one or other, not both” preconcepts.
But that is my point - traditional publishing is not dead and does not have to be so. There are valid arguments on both sides, and publishers certainly have their place. There *is* room for both, and my library will happily attest to that.
lol - there's room for both until you can't charge your batteries anymore, but by then we'll have lost the art of printing, so it will look like a race to the finish line, going backwards.
Beth, I am entirely aware that I was voicing a personal view and that one person's crap is another persons (smelly) diamond.
Everyone looks for what will sell as their mission is to turn a profit. However, current circumstances allow producers to appeal to a much wider market now and they have all discovered that the bigger the market, the greater their sales. Quality across the board has suffered - one only need walk into WalMart to know this.
Spend some time with the young uns these days and you'll see the opposite side of the coin - the sense of entitlement. They are 'owed' a whatever (be it a video game or having their book published).
Genre conventions are another example: there used to be a time when something like Dragon*Con would never have made it - fans would have shunned the commercialism (and did and do), so instead the producers go and appeal to non-fans, water everything down (so that now the big appeal is waiting on line to get an autograph from some actor) and everyone else thinks that it's a “great marketing opportunity”.
There used to be a concept that if it couldn't be done right, it wasn't worth doing - or was at least worth waiting for the time when it could be done right. Now no one seems to care, since they've figured out that if they spend as much on the advertising bushwah as they do on the product itself, they'll make their money back.
Go look at so-called “reviews” on the web. None of the mass appeal “reviewers” are saying anything substantial (you have to dig to find the under-trafficked sites for that) - instead all they say is 'way cool, go read' (or worse yet - it's just like the video game!).
My perspective is over a half-century though, so YMMV. It's not anti-new fangled gizmo, it's anti the way the new fangled gizmos are being used. For the most part, the way I see it, instead of being used by those who can to improve things, they are being used by many who shouldn't.
Since I happen to like The Black Swan , my take on all of this is:
I don't want to know about where the #1 writer is, I want to know how steeply the curve falls off for the next 10,000 authors.
See, someone has to be #1, and to make a system viable, #1 has to be making a living at that.
Do we follow #1's advice (hey it works for me? Try it and you'll be like me). Well, only if something similar worked for #2-#100. Then you know the advice works. If the #2 author in a field also has to work a day job to make her modest living expenses, #1 is a fluke, and the drop-off on that curve is too steep for me to want to play.
If the #10,000 author is happy with the money he's making, then it's a good market.
And that's assuming that everyone is being transparent with their numbers, which is a problematic assumption right there.
As for e-books: I still want one with a solar panel and hand crank before I'm going to bury print media. But that's a post for another topic.
I'd like to think that print isn't dead and never will be. I happen to really like physical books. I also like the convenience of ebooks, though for me, I'm very rarely in a situation where having an ereader would be useful, thus they're not worth the investment. Give us a generation growing up on ereaders and we'll see where the scales will finally balance out. I also love bookstores. It just gives me a great feeling to be in one. You can't get that shopping online. I honestly do not like looking for books online. I appreciate reviews and those who take time to do good reviewing (fewer and far between these days it seems), but I'll take word of mouth from people I know and physically browsing a bookstore to find things I want to read.
The point of all this is that people read for different reasons in different ways and like different things. Ebooks won't take over. They will certainly dominate a specific market of readership and perhaps that market will continue to grow over the years as children grow up doing most of their reading digitally. This would make me rather sad. There's something to be said for the physical book and browsing in bookstores and such. It offers a very different experience and appreciation for books and stories that you can't get digitally. It's not always about the convenience to read and buy whenever you want, though that has it's place too.
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